Temperature, wind and humidity: this is how the next few hours will be in Empordà

The meteorological conditions in the area of the fires in the counties of Girona are very adverse. At the moment, two uncontrolled fires are advancing: one in La Bisbal d'Empordà and the other in Vilademuls, in Pla de l'Estany. The tramuntana (north wind) gives no respite and has been blowing warm for hours with gusts between 30 and 50 km/h, with a maximum gust recorded today of almost 60 km/h. In addition, the heat is very intense, with temperatures close to 34 ºC, and very low humidity that dries out the terrain.

These conditions are known as the rule of three 30s for extreme forest fire risk: winds over 30 km/h, temperatures above 30 ºC, and humidity below 30%. A lethal combination that fuels the flames and greatly hinders the extinction capacity of the Firefighters.

The forecast indicates that during the afternoon the sea breeze may enter transiently, which would lower the temperature and raise the humidity, but would also change the direction of the fire's advance. From tonight until tomorrow midday, the tramuntana will again dominate, although it will lose intensity, and will finally disappear tomorrow afternoon in Baix Empordà.

If this wind change occurs for a few hours, it could cause the flames to stop advancing rapidly in a southerly direction through the Gavarres massif. This is a natural space with a great diversity of ecosystems, and it is a true green lung in the northeast of the country. Nevertheless, the fire could move from southeast to northwest, and could also affect part of the massif, although advancing at a slower speed.

Increasingly fierce fires

In recent years, the number of forest fires has decreased, but those that do occur can be increasingly serious and devastating. These are known as sixth-generation fires. They are fires of extreme intensity that can overwhelm firefighters' extinction capacity. Their high energy allows them to generate their own dynamics, with very rapid and unpredictable spread, which can put people, homes, and infrastructure at risk in a very short time.

One example is the extraordinary fire that occurred last year in Torrefeta i Florejacs (Segarra), which ravaged thousands of hectares in just a few hours in an unstoppable manner and caused the death of two people. That tragedy was considered a warning of the serious fires our country will have to face in the coming years.

In Catalonia, the risk of these large fires occurring has increased recently due to the impact of the climate crisis, which favors increasingly hot, dry, and long summers, with more extreme weather events. Although we come from a rainy year, the very high temperatures we have had since spring have dried out the land and left a scenario prone to large forest fires when we are just at the beginning of summer. All it takes is a spark and adverse conditions – such as the reheated Tramuntana wind in Empordà – for a significant fire to start.