Trump and the doctrine of chaos and uncertainty
Continuing his pattern of acting outside the bounds of international law and resorting to threats and force to achieve his objectives, US President Donald Trump is once again sowing chaos and uncertainty, as he has done more than once with tariffs. This time, he is threatening to sever all trade relations with Spain in response to the Spanish government's ban on the use of the Rota (Cádiz) and Morón de la Frontera (Seville) naval bases for attacks on Iran. He is ignoring the fact that Iran is part of a political and economic bloc like the European Union (EU), which acts as a single entity, and that there are intertwined economic, commercial, and business interests that benefit not only Spanish companies but also US ones. There are precedents for this type of threat, such as when he said he would impose tariffs on Spain because it did not allocate 5% of its GDP to defense spending—a threat he later retracted. As on the previous occasion, Brussels has reminded him that he cannot punish some countries and not others.
This latest invective is yet another episode in the new order (or disorder) that Trump has imposed since taking office just over a year ago. We are dealing with a leader who considered himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize and who, after failing to win it, claims to have a free hand to do whatever he wants. In fact, in an interview on The New York Times He has already stated that he believes his only limit is his own morality. One such instance is the joint attacks on Iran with Israel, carried out without the approval of his own country's Congress or, according to his own criteria, without regard for international law. It is this latter point that Pedro Sánchez's government is using to deny the use of US bases on Spanish territory. And, as when the US Supreme Court struck down his tariffs, Trump always has a response: "Now Spain has said we can't use their bases. We could use them, if we wanted. We could fly there and nobody would tell us not to," he said without batting an eye.
And all this has happened after the Spanish stock market had already closed, marked by fears about the development of the conflict in the Middle East. There are many reasons to worry: the arguments from the White House and, especially, the recognition that we may be facing a war that, in addition to violating all the rules of international law, could last longer than initially predicted, as well as the confusion or lack of clarity regarding the reasons for starting it. It is no wonder that the concern of analysts and investors has skyrocketed.
Equity markets are a barometer of the economy. And they tend to overreact in times of prosperity, and even more so in times of uncertainty, like now. What was supposed to be an almost surgical operation looks very much like it will become a widespread and long-lasting conflict. The first effect has been the rise in oil and natural gas prices, which points to higher fuel and electricity costs. And finally, it implies an increase in inflation, which is more worrying the longer the conflict lasts. It wouldn't be the first crisis to begin with a sudden rise in oil prices, although dependence on crude oil is lower than in previous years.
