The amnesty law for those charged in the independence process came into force in June 2024. More than two years have passed and the blockade continues. How much longer will it take to reach all those involved?
The ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) is objectively very good news. The highest court in Luxembourg has given almost total backing to the law: it denies that its application affects the financial interests of the EU, denies that it violates the anti-terrorism directive, and endorses the spirit of "reconciliation" between Spain and Catalonia that inspires it. A success.
The bad news is that it may not serve to unblock the effective and general application of the amnesty. There are some judges, those of the Supreme Court, led by Manuel Marchena and Pablo Llarena, who are not willing to move forward with it. For some time now, they have taken it as a matter of professional honor from a position that is difficult to dissociate from the Aznarista "he who can, let him do". Its members are not willing to let anyone, including the legislative power, the CJEU, or the Constitutional Court (TC) itself, correct them. For them, the amnesty is a complete rejection of their ruling.
To the extent the Supreme Court can, the leaders of the 'Procés', and especially former president Puigdemont, will not get off so easily. It is more than likely that this court will continue to look for ways to evade the mandate of the law with procedural delays and strange interpretations of the same norm, such as the argumentative contortion of saying that if the leaders did not put money from their own pockets to organize the referendum, the enrichment was indirect. Thus, despite the good news from the TJUE, the return of the Junts leader and the possibility of ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, running in the elections remain up in the air.
What will happen now? The most plausible scenario is that the Constitutional Court, which has pending the appeals for protection filed by exiled independentist leaders convicted of embezzlement for organizing the October 1st referendum, in view of the TJUE's position, will now – in September or October – advocate for the amnesty to be applied, and will so notify the Supreme Court. Depending on the clarity of its position, the Supreme Court will find it more or less difficult to continue obstructing the amnesty. In the harshest scenario of judicial institutional clash, it could even accuse the members of the TC, with a progressive majority, of prevarication. However, it has other intermediate ways to slow down the amnesty. Be that as it may, it is difficult to think that it will throw in the towel.
The Supreme Court has amply demonstrated that it goes its own way. So, even if the PP might be interested in turning the page with an amnestied Puigdemont in case they needed Junts' votes to govern in the not-too-distant future, it does not seem that the court is inclined to do so. For Marchena, Llarena and company, beyond their patriotic vengeful Spanish nationalism, it is a matter of judicial self-esteem. And it must be clear that the judicial hijacking of politics, initiated with the 'Procés', today, along with the blockade of the amnesty, marks the reality in Madrid, with the PSOE government in its sights.
