A government crisis with many readings
Pedro Sánchez on Thursday bid farewell to his closest and most loyal collaborator since he arrived at Moncloa in June 2018. Since then, María Jesús Montero has continuously held the Finance portfolio, one of the most sensitive in any government, and from there she has climbed positions to become, in December 2023, the first vice-president, i.e., number two in the executive. Undoubtedly, Sánchez is giving up one of the pillars of his government to send her to compete in Andalusia against Juanma Moreno Bonilla, a mission that currently seems impossible. It is true, however, that in politics, this month and a half remaining until the elections is an eternity.
In fact, María Jesús Montero is going to Andalusia not so much to contest the Junta from Moreno as to avoid a PSOE defeat that would be fatal for Sánchez's own aspirations. On the other hand, if Montero performs well and Moreno Bonilla loses his absolute majority and is forced to negotiate with Vox, it would mean a breath of fresh air for Sánchez, as the PP's dependence on the far-right would become much more evident. In this scenario, Montero would have four years to, as leader of the opposition, prepare for the next elections.
Carlos Cuerpo's rise to the first vice-presidency follows the same logic as Nadia Calviño's at the time, as he is a technical profile who has gained prominence and political weight over time. Unlike Montero, however, Cuerpo is not someone programmed for direct confrontation with the right, but rather for finding points of agreement, as demonstrated by the social shield also approved this Thursday in Congress. That said, Cuerpo's appointment also means that for the first time since he came to government, Sánchez has a male, not female, number two.
Regarding Catalonia, the appointment of the Valencian Arcadi España as Minister of Finance is particularly interesting. España was a close collaborator of Ximo Puig throughout his presidency and is part of the most federalist and Valencianist wing of the PSPV. No one understands the urgency of approving a new financing system better than him, as the Valencian Community is the most underfunded region in the State, and according to Montero's proposal, it would receive 3,669 million.
It is to be expected that Pedro Sánchez has chosen a person particularly sensitive to the issue of financing (Spain was Minister of Finance, precisely) with the political will for the system agreed between Montero and ERC to move forward and for the transfer of the management of IRPF to Catalonia to be unblocked. The Government and Catalan parties are obliged to explore to the fullest the possibility of an agreement with the new Minister of Finance that makes possible both the improvement of the Generalitat's finances and a leap in self-government through the strengthening of the Catalan Tax Agency.