Trump's speech sends oil prices soaring
European stock markets and energy markets will remain closed for the Good Friday holiday
BarcelonaThe tension around the war with Iran has once again shaken energy markets and driven the price of oil above 110 dollars a barrel. After Donald Trump's speech, in which he avoided specifying when the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, investors reacted nervously and accelerated crude oil purchases. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark in the United States, has climbed above this threshold —the highest level since March 9— and is heading for its most intense daily increase since 2020, while Brent, a benchmark in Europe, also maintains an upward trend in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of further supply disruptions.
Donald Trump's speech, in which he avoided specifying when the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, investors reacted nervously and accelerated crude oil purchases. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark in the United States, has climbed above this threshold —the highest level since March 9— and is heading for its most intense daily increase since 2020, while Brent, a benchmark in Europe, also maintains an upward trend in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of further supply disruptions.
European markets also did not receive Trump's speech well and, after closing positively on Wednesday, closed with minor losses on Thursday, all below 1%. Spain's benchmark index, the Ibex-35, lost 0.14%, while other major European stock markets also closed the day with similar declines: Frankfurt closed with a reduction of 0.93%; Paris, 0.24%; and Milan, 0.2%. London, on the other hand, registered an increase of 0.69%. American markets, for their part.
In the United States, the Dow Jones in New York closed with a decrease of 0.13%, while the technology Nasdaq and the S&P500 —the index that groups the 500 largest US companies— rose by 0.18% and 0.11%, respectively.
The cost of living, on the rise
The rollercoaster of recent weeks in energy prices has already forced an upward revision of the European Central Bank's (ECB) inflation forecasts. The institution predicts that the cost of living, driven up by the high price of fuels, will increase to 3.1% in the second quarter of 2026; while it expects that, for the third period, inflation will fall to 2.8%. The ECB's calculations, therefore, place inflation well above the 2% that the institution sets as its long-term target.
It should be recalled that, recently, the president of the institution, Christine Lagarde, stated that her hand would not tremble if it were necessary to raise interest rates. With the new forecasts on the table, the institution will have to decide whether to update them this April. For now, some members of the Governing Council have considered it premature to raise rates at the end-of-month meeting, but others are already considering this possibility.
A "historically low" gas inventory
The entity also warns that gas inventories are currently around 29% of capacity, making fuel prices particularly exposed to potential supply disruptions: "The price is especially vulnerable due to historically low storage levels in Europe." Nevertheless, the ECB points out that the exposure of international merchandise trade is indeed limited, given that the container ships currently in the Persian Gulf represent only about 1.6% of global container transport capacity.
The war in the Middle East could also threaten European exports. Specifically, the bank forecasts that the eurozone will lose global market share, "given the persistent competitiveness problems, including some of a structural nature." During the fourth quarter of 2025, eurozone exports already fell by 0.4%, a fact that could worsen due to the conflict, according to the ECB.
