Trump's speech sends oil prices soaring
European stock markets also open with declines
BarcelonaImmediately after Donald Trump assured that in the coming weeks they would hit Iran "very hard", hydrocarbon prices have soared again. After a positive session in terms of crude oil prices, which this Thursday dropped for a good while below the $100 barrier, Brent crude – the European benchmark – was up this Thursday at 11:30 AM by +7.57%, to $108.82. For its part, at the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures – the US benchmark – stood at $107.86. They had become more expensive, therefore, by 7.73%. As for natural gas, the TTF futures market in the Netherlands – the European benchmark – rose this morning to 49 euros per megawatt, 3.14% more than yesterday.
European markets have also not taken well to Trump's speech and, after all closing in positive territory this Wednesday, they are painting red this Thursday morning. At 11:40 AM, the benchmark index in Spain, the Ibex-35, was down 1.35%. The other main European stock markets are also experiencing similar drops: the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 1.77%, while Germany's main stock market, the DAX, was marking -1.60%. American markets remain closed and, for the moment, have not yet felt the effects of the threat.
The cost of living, on the rise
The roller coaster of recent weeks in energy prices has already forced an upward revision of the European Central Bank's (ECB) inflation forecasts. The institution predicts that the cost of living, driven up by the high price of fuels, will increase to 3.1% in the second quarter of 2026; while it forecasts that, for the third period, inflation will fall to 2.8%. The ECB's calculations, therefore, place inflation well above the 2% target set by the institution.
It should be recalled that, recently, the president of the organization, Christine Lagarde, assured that she would not hesitate to raise interest rates if necessary. With the new forecasts on the table, the institution will have to decide whether to update them this April. For the moment, some members of the Governing Council have considered it premature to raise rates at the end-of-month meeting, but others are already considering the possibility.
A "historically low" gas inventory
The entity also warns that gas inventories are currently around 29% of capacity, making fuel prices particularly exposed to potential supply disruptions: "its price is especially vulnerable due to historically low storage levels in Europe". Even so, the ECB points out that the exposure of international merchandise trade is actually limited, given that the container ships currently in the Persian Gulf represent only about 1.6% of global container transport capacity.
The war in the Middle East could also threaten European exports. Specifically, the bank forecasts that the eurozone will lose global market share, "given the persistent competitiveness problems, including some of a structural nature". During the fourth quarter of 2025, eurozone exports already fell by 0.4%, a fact that could worsen due to the conflict, according to the ECB.