In the long run, the stock market always wins.

BarcelonaIf investors are patient and don't let nervousness get the better of them when prices fall or rise, stocks are the financial asset that offers the highest returns. Since 1900, shares in companies listed on the Spanish stock exchange have yielded an average of 2% more than bonds and long-term government debt, according to the study. Global investment returns yearbook 2026 (Global Investment Performance Yearbook 2026) published by the Swiss bank UBS in collaboration with Professor Paul Marsh and Dr. Mike Staunton (London Business School) and Professor Elroy Dimson (University of Cambridge) with data from 35 countries.

The 2% premium on bonds "is lower than in the other countries analyzed in the study" in the Spanish case, and the reason, despite remaining neutral during the First and Second World Wars, is that the markets were closed during the Civil War, from 1936 to 1939. Furthermore, with the return of democracy, bond prices quadrupled, and at that time the country was 70% dependent on foreign energy sources. The effects of the 2008 financial crisis were also felt. A return to significant growth began in 2014, and in fact, last year the Ibex 35, the main stock market index in Spain, led the world's major equity markets in returns, with almost 50%, according to its Swiss counterpart, SIX. Currently, this index was still setting records until the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

In any case, regardless of the long period being compared, both in Spain and in other countries, stocks always offer higher real returns once inflation is taken into account. For example, according to the study, from 1900 to 2025, the return on stocks in Spain averaged 3.7% compared to 1% for bonds, and a negative return of 0.2% for Treasury bills (Treasury bills were introduced in 1987; before that there were promissory notes and, in earlier times, promissory notes). From 1976 to 2025, it was 4.9% compared to 2.6% for long-term debt and 1% for short-term debt; and from 2006 to 2025, 4.4%, compared to 1.3% and a negative return of 1%, respectively.

From one dollar to 124,854

The study compiles data spanning more than a century, leading to the conclusion that stocks are the best-performing financial asset. Since 1900, they have outperformed bonds, Treasury bills, and other short-term debt instruments, as well as inflation, in all the countries analyzed. According to the authors, a dollar invested in stocks in 1900 would have been worth $124,854 at the end of last year. In the case of bonds, that same dollar would be worth $284, and Treasury bills and other short-term government financing instruments, $69. One of the essential elements for obtaining real returns is inflation. In the case of the US, although the overall price index since 1900 has been 2.9%, a more moderate level than in other countries, a dollar from 126 years ago would be equivalent to $38 today.

Over this long period under study, the market profile has changed considerably. From a very even distribution in 1900, we have moved to the total dominance of US equity markets, which account for around 62% of the total value of global stock exchanges. There has also been a significant shift in sectors. In 1900, 80% of the stock market's value was held by industries that are now small or no longer exist, such as railroads, textiles, iron, coal, and metals. In contrast, today, technology and healthcare-related activities, which were practically nonexistent 126 years ago, now occupy a large share of the total. Another pattern highlighted by the authors is that new technologies do not always create bubbles, and that bubbles do not always lead to weak long-term returns. As an example, they cite railroad companies, which were revolutionary in 1900, dominating the market, but now represent less than 1% of the US stock market. And yet, they managed to outperform the overall market over time. Many years later, despite the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, technology companies have outperformed the US market. Another pattern identified by these researchers is that economic risks have historically outweighed geopolitical ones. While extreme geopolitical events have coincided with some of the worst market performances since 1900, most major stock market crashes in peacetime were driven by economic, not geopolitical, factors. Therefore, they advise investors to "look beyond short-term geopolitical noise."