Consumer loans lead credit growth

BarcelonaThe main Spanish banks have closed the first quarter without any of the tribulations that analysts expected. The six financial entities of the Ibex-35 arrive in April with accumulated profits close to 11,000 million euros, the best first quarter in the sector's history. The market reads in the accounts of Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Banco Sabadell, Bankinter and Unicaja a successful "profitability growth" strategy, in the words of Renta 4 bank expert Núria Álvarez. The economist, in statements to the newspaper ARA, points out that, in part, the entities have accelerated the offer of slightly riskier products, but also with more profit potential. "In this area, mortgages are not succeeding, but consumer loans are," adds Álvarez. And the Bank of Spain agrees: according to the entity's latest liquidity report, the total balance of consumer financing soared in the first quarter by 12.6%, to 117,351 million.

According to the results sent by the main entities to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), both mortgages and consumer loans have increased in the first three months of the year, although individual financing has done so with much more strength than that dedicated to real estate. The most striking case is that of Banco Sabadell, which has increased outstanding mortgage credit by 4%, while consumer active credit has increased by 14% compared to the end of 2025. It is worth noting that the Vallesana portfolio already came from the months of the takeover bid and, in fact, new concessions fell slightly by March, down 4% year-on-year. The drop in new mortgages, however, is much more significant, at 26%.

The trend is replicated in the case of CaixaBank, which has seen its consumer portfolio grow by 12.4% in the period, compared to only 6.7% in loans for home purchases. As in the case of Sabadell, new production is more limited: between January and March, mortgages grew by 1.1%, while personal financing grew by almost 3%. The same applies to BBVA, which has had mortgage growth of 1.5%, while its consumer portfolio has grown by 4.2%.

More profit with each loan

Tomás Muniesa, a slowdown in credit demand has been notedThe first quarter, it should be remembered, was mostly outside the influence of the war in Iran. From April onwards, with the conflict in full swing, insecurity has settled among consumers and, as the president of CaixaBank explained this week, Tomás Muniesa, a slowdown in credit demand has been noted

. In fact, according to data from the Bank of Spain, March was the first month since last July in which the portfolio grew less than in the previous period. However, consulted analysts confine this reduction to an adverse international context that "should be limited".

"They can afford more risk"

The market identifies the banking sector's movement with a historically good health of its credit accounts. According to a report by the consultancy Morningstar DBRS, the aggregate ratio of non-performing loans of the six Ibex entities has plummeted to 2.1%, a percentage that analysts consider "close to the minimums" that Spanish banks can reach. This reduction has allowed the cost of risk to be lowered for several of the entities: only BBVA has had to increase provisions significantly, and it has done so in its major international markets, such as Mexico or Turkey, which are more exposed to international turmoil. Credit certainty provides room for maneuver, but also has limits regarding the ability to generate profits. "You can only cut risk provisions so much," indicates Álvarez.

In this regard, analysts deduce that the risk profile allows for the assault on less secure but more profitable market segments. According to a recent report prepared by the credit agency Equifax and the National Association of Financial Establishments (ASNEF), the risk profile of credit applicants during the first quarter has slightly increased. Álvarez, however, believes that the treatment of consumer credit must adapt to the Spanish economic reality, with employment and gross domestic product on the rise: "The probability of default is no longer what it used to be".

In this sense, XTB analyst Javier Cabrera considers that it is possible that banks will take advantage of this "flexibility" to launch into this type of product. "Moving from 2.5% non-performing loans to 3% or 3.5% would not be serious, and perhaps they are willing to reach it," he argues, through "juicier" credits. The transition, if it occurs, will not happen overnight. "We will not see a very strong rebound in a quarter, but rather gradual increases; some lower quality credits, but with better interest rates," he predicts.