Winter has officially arrived: what kind of weather can we expect?

BarcelonaWinter already showed its teeth during the last two weeks of November and the first days of December, when very cold air masses caused temperatures to plummet. But the new season officially arrives this Sunday, December 21. Specifically, astronomical winter will begin at 4:03 PM (Catalan time) and will last until March 20, when spring will take over.

The exact moment the new season begins will be the winter solstice, when the Sun reaches its lowest point in the sky at midday. Thus, on Sunday we will experience the shortest day and the longest night of the year.

But what do the long-term maps from seasonal models say about what weather awaits us this winter? Will it be cold and snow at lower elevations? Or will we continue with the pattern of recent years and it will be warm? According to sources at Meteocat and Aemet consulted by ARA, all forecasts are in the same vein, given that they are predictions that only show a trend and have a very high degree of uncertainty.

Will it be a warm or cold winter?

Forecasts indicate that the overall temperature for the entire winter will be warm and above average. This is a trend that all seasons have been experiencing for years. It should be noted that, although astronomical winter begins on December 21st, seasonal forecasts are based on meteorological winter, which includes the entire months of December, January, and February. Some models indicate that the average temperature this winter could be between 1°C and 1.5°C above normal. In fact, the first half of December has not been very cold, with values above average. However, the first days of astronomical winter will be marked by a clear drop in temperatures, leading to a fully wintry Christmas week with below-average values.

Will it rain a lot or snow at lower elevations?

Regarding precipitation, most maps indicate that we will have the usual amounts for this time of year. Even the forecasts provided by Meteocat suggest that the coastal and pre-coastal areas could receive more rain than normal, especially in December and January. However, the exception would be the western Pyrenees, where less rain and snow than usual could fall. The first days of December have been dry, but rain has returned this past week. This unsettled weather will continue into the first days of astronomical winter. It should be noted that this is traditionally a dry season with little precipitation in most regions. As for snow, forecasts indicate that snowfall will arrive in the Pyrenees throughout the winter, especially in the eastern part. What is impossible to know is whether it will snow at very low elevations, something that hasn't happened for quite some time. Although average winter temperatures are expected to be high, if a rain event coincides with a sudden influx of cold air, the snow level could easily plummet. In fact, snow is possible below 1,000 meters starting Sunday night and continuing throughout the following week. A full assessment will be necessary at the end of the season.

A warm and humid 2025 is coming to an end in Catalonia

2025 will go down in history as the year the long and historic drought ended, thanks mainly to an exceptionally rainy March. But temperatures have continued their upward trend and remain above average. According to sources at Aemet (the Spanish State Meteorological Agency) speaking to ARA, the period from January to November was "exceptionally warm," particularly in June, which recorded an average temperature almost 4°C above normal. Aemet also reported that of the last 23 months, 19 have registered average temperatures above normal. And since 2005, all but three autumns have been warmer than usual. This data highlights the rapid global warming that is particularly affecting the Mediterranean region.