Why Spain and Argentina reached the World Cup final

BarcelonaThe Football World Cup – which now FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, plans to sell partially to private investors– it is an event that, despite being accompanied by millions of figures and statistics, always reserves space for unpredictability and epicness. Paraguay and Morocco were two examples. After eliminating Germany and the Netherlands in the round of 16, respectively, the two Global South selections defied the forecasts that limited their options to reach the end of the tournament.

Their journey again brings to the table a recurring question: why do some countries become football powerhouses while others, seemingly better positioned, fail to make the leap? China and India account for one in three inhabitants on the planet. If football talent were solely a matter of population size, they should dominate football, basketball, or any other sport. However, reality contradicts this intuition. The eight countries that have lifted a World Cup – Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England, and Spain – represent just 6% of the world's population.

What leads a country with a much smaller population to become a football powerhouse while demographic giants like India, China, or the United States – which together account for nearly 40% of the world's population – have not managed to establish themselves among the elite of men's football? Population is just one piece of a much more complex puzzle. Genetics, economic development, the degree of professionalization of football, or even levels of corruption are some of the factors that, according to the data collected, condition a selection's chances of reaching the final rounds of the World Cup.

Genetics, a factor that also plays a role

Among the ten most populated countries in the world, there are five demographic powers that have never participated in a World Cup or have not advanced past the group stage. Only one of these ten selections has been proclaimed world champion: Brazil.

The seventh demographic power on the planet registers an average male height of 175.73 centimeters, higher than the average of the ten most populated countries (170.89 centimeters). In fact, the eight countries that have won at least one World Cup exceed this figure. Overall, they present an average male height of 176.18 centimeters, and none of them are below 174 centimeters.

Developed economies prevail, with the exception of Brazil

In terms of human development, the pattern also favors champion selections. The twenty most populous countries in the world register an average human development index (HDI) of 0.73, while seven out of eight world champions exceed 0.86. The HDI synthesizes indicators of income, education, and life expectancy and is one of the most widely used measures to compare the development level of countries. The exception is Brazil, with an HDI of 0.786, much closer to the average of the most populous countries than to that of the other world champions.

The difference is even more marked if GDP per capita is analyzed. The twenty most populated countries register an average of $15,536 per inhabitant annually, while that of the countries that have been champions or runners-up in the World Cup rises to $43,818.

The more professionalized football is, the more chances of success

The ten most populous countries have an average of 1,638 professional footballers –that is, players who obtain their main source of income from football–. Among the countries that have won a World Cup, the figure more than doubles, to an average of 3,495 professionals. Spain stands out, with 8,560 players, and Argentina, with 5,582.

If this figure is weighed by the population volume, the differences are even more evident. The ten most populated countries register an average of 1.39 professional footballers per 100,000 inhabitants, while the world champions reach 7.9. Spain (17.9) and Uruguay (15.3) lead this indicator.

Institutional quality also makes a difference

Institutional quality indicators also show a relationship with sporting success. Countries that have been world champions or runners-up score an average of 61 points on the corruption perception index, with values reaching 80 points in the case of Sweden and 77 in that of Germany.

In contrast, the twenty most populous countries score an average of 37.25 points. In this index, prepared by Transparency International, a score of 0 indicates a high perception of corruption, while 100 corresponds to countries with public administration perceived as more integrous.