Travel in wartime
This summer is approached as a framework of resilience for international tourism. Although the closure of airspaces and the increase in fuel prices have transformed freedom of movement into a more expensive and complex asset, the traveler does not give up on discovering the world, but does demand new guarantees. In this geopolitical chessboard, Catalonia emerges as a sure bet, capturing flows fleeing from instability and consolidating itself as a refuge where quality and certainty take precedence over the ticket price.
Global tourism has entered a zone of permanent turbulence. We are no longer talking about a conjunctural crisis, but about a reconfiguration of the rules of the game. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), one in every seven travelers on the planet passes through the hubs of the Middle East (Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi), points that have suffered massive blockages and diversions due to instability in the Middle East. This situation not only affects airports, but also drives up the price of travel. Fuel already accounts for 30% of airlines' costs and, as Pedro Aznar, Professor of Economics and Finance at Esade, warns, the increase in the cost of flying will hardly be reversible, although it cannot increase indefinitely.Security has no discount
Faced with this scenario, Catalonia emerges as a "refuge destination" that is not the result of chance but directly responds to the traveler's psychology. Pedro Aznar's analysis is categorical, tourism is not a basic necessity, but an activity based on enjoyment where the perception of safety is non-negotiable. So the traveler does not give up long-distance travel, but shifts their objective if the area is not safe. "If geopolitics constantly changes and the perception of many tourists is that the Middle East is not safe, it can have relevant effects, which are also not compensated by price discounts. Families, especially, prioritize certainty." In this way, instability in the Middle East or the Eastern Mediterranean acts as a driver that displaces flows towards more stable areas, as is the case in Catalonia. According to Jordi Vinyoles, vice-president of the Corporate Association of Specialized Travel Agencies (ACAVE), in this context Catalonia and the Balearic Islands have positioned themselves as some of the beneficiaries. “Events can be changing, but in our country, there will clearly be an increase in tourism demand this year,” he assures. This is a movement confirmed by the executive director of the Catalan Tourism Agency (ACT), Patrick Torrent, who details that cruises that were supposed to call at the Eastern Mediterranean are now looking for ports in Barcelona or Tarragona, and that even corporate events planned in the Persian Gulf are changing latitude towards Catalan territory.
Catalonia, due to its location and infrastructure, is one of the main recipients of this tourism, as long as El Prat airport has the operational capacity to absorb these flights that avoid hot spots. Even so, "it does not please us," assures Torrent, who recalls that even though Catalonia benefits from this consideration of a "refuge destination," "it is a conjunctural situation that does not interest us because it generates uncertainty and collective fear that may end up leading to a containment of travel".For the moment, however, Vinyoles points out that demand is not stopping despite conflicts, although he stresses the vital need for anticipation: with an airport at El Prat planning a 7.6% increase in seats, the risk for tourists is the last-minute extra cost in destinations that are already close to full.The end of cheap flights and the premium factor
Regarding connectivity, the reality of flying has become more complex, slower, and more expensive. Jordi Vinyoles explains that the sector has had to massively reorganize routes to avoid closed airspace by strengthening connection hubs like Istanbul or regaining traffic for major European airports to avoid the hubs in the Persian Gulf.This increase in cost and the rise in travel time have a direct and measurable impact on strategic markets, such as the Chinese market. China's case is a good example of this “comparative grievance”: due to the war conflict, European airlines are prohibited from flying over Russian airspace, forcing them to take much longer routes to reach the Far East.This translates into an increase in flight hours and fuel consumption that airlines cannot absorb on their own and which ends up increasing the final ticket price. Despite these barriers, according to Aznar, Catalan tourism cannot turn its back on a market like China, which has consolidated a very powerful middle class with a desire to travel to Europe that the sector needs to recover due to its large volume, but which is now hampered by slower and more expensive logistics while the conflict lasts.However, the sector's ability to react is serving as a counterbalance. Vinyoles highlights that destinations like China have many direct flights from Barcelona that are being very well received. "There continues to be an interest in long-haul travel; markets like Africa and Asia are selling very well". Despite these difficulties, and with the filter of destination safety above all, the traveler shows resilience in the face of economic or logistical difficulties. Aznar points out that "it is easier for people to adjust the number of trips or the duration of their stay" before giving up on their dream destination, even if it is not a nearby destination. It is here where the premium tourist plays a fundamental role in the Catalan strategy. This profile of visitor has "less sensitivity to price variations". The high-value tourist prioritizes service, luxury accommodation, exclusive events, and high-level gastronomy; for this segment, the difficulty or duration of long-haul flights is not such a relevant factor when deciding on their trip.The challenge of redistribution in Catalonia
Beyond the wartime situation, the future of the Catalan model involves not dying of success. While Catalonia is consolidating itself as a geopolitical refuge, Aznar warns that the challenge is not so much about absorbing this extra influx of visitors as about a certain redistribution throughout the year, because seasonality remains very relevant. According to the Esade professor, achieving stable demand is vital to reduce the social costs of tourism and maintain its positive impact on GDP and employment.On this line, the ACT maintains its commitment to diversification and decentralization throughout the territory, and tries to ensure that this visitor, who arrives fleeing instability in other regions, does not focus solely on the coast, but discovers the interior.The summer of 2026 thus confirms that the desire to explore different cultures and geographies remains strong despite geopolitical hurdles. But the sector agrees that the industry must prepare for an environment where safety and excellence will be the only values that allow international tourism to remain fluid.