We are now more than 8 million (and rising): the population boom is accelerating

BarcelonaWhen the ARA was founded in late 2011 with the promise of seeking out—and reporting on—"the world to come," the country barely reached 7.5 million inhabitants. The goal of 8 million was envisioned on the still distant horizon of 2030, but reality has defied predictions, and the figure has been reached much sooner than expected, specifically seven years ahead of schedule—at the end of 2023. The explanation for what demographers have already dubbed as the second population boom of the 21st century —and we're barely past the first quarter— is primarily due to the arrival of foreign residents. Without this factor, the country would have been losing its total population for almost eight years. In fact, Catalonia's natural growth rate, that is, the difference between births and deaths, has been slowing down over the last fifteen years, even entering negative territory in the last seven. Since 2018, there have been more burials than deaths.

The fertility rate is hitting record lows. You have to go back to the post-war years—specifically 1952—to find a scenario in which Catalan women had so few children. In 2024, the rate stood at 1.08 children per woman, reaching its lowest point and continuing a long-standing trend with multiple causes. The age at which women have their first child has been steadily declining and now stands at an average of 32.6 years.

And no, it's not that there's a disaffection with having children, because surveys continue to point to a desire for more children than people actually end up having. All of this suggests, therefore, causes that are not only related to social and cultural changes, such as shifts in values ​​or life priorities, but are also largely explained by the increasing difficulty of accessing housing or a job that provides economic stability. To this we must add the persistent lack of real work-life balance policies and the absence of affordable childcare networks, to name just a few of the factors that are hindering efforts to overcome a birth rate at rock bottom.

With this scenario, it's clear that if the population curve has climbed as it has in the last decade, it's been due to the enormous power of attraction for new residents – especially in the Barcelona metropolitan area, but not only there. And yet the decade began with great uncertainty after two consecutive economic recessions that decimated the population—many foreigners returned to their countries of origin due to a lack of job opportunities here. With the signs of recovery and economic growth, however, the demographic rebound has been continuous—except for the brief shock of the pandemic—and increasingly rapid.

"Catalonia is growing at a fairly rapid pace, around 1.5% on average annually," Professor Arlinda Garcia Coll of the University of Barcelona, ​​an expert in migration and residential movements, recently told ARA, adding that demographers consider growth to be significant once it reaches 2%. Today, according to Idescat, the foreign population of Catalonia represents 18% of the total and there is a great diversity of origins: 21.5% come from the European Union, 23% from South American countries, and 17.7% from North Africa, to name the main areas of origin.

A dazzling change

The 700,000 new inhabitants that Catalonia has gained in net terms since 2014 have been distributed across various areas of the region. The entire area surrounding Barcelona, ​​the metropolitan area, and the Vallès region—both western and eastern—were major recipients, but they weren't the only ones. The population has also experienced significant growth in some coastal areas of Tarragona, such as Baix Penedès, and Girona, as reported by ARA in a recent comprehensive analysis. "It makes perfect sense. The areas that provide the most jobs are growing: the metropolis and the coast. There are also some specific growth centers, such as some regional capitals like Guissona, due to industry, and in the north of the region, some snow and mountain tourism destinations are also experiencing population growth," explains Garcia Coll.

The result is rapid growth and population renewal. "The residents who perceive a dramatic change are right, that's the case," summarizes Andreu Domingo, PhD in sociology, deputy director of the Center for Demographic Studies (CED) and vice president of the Institute of Catalan Studies, based on the data.

The case of the capital, BarcelonaBarcelona is unique in this respect. Despite its undeniable appeal, the city hasn't seen a population boom during these years of growth, but rather has remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations. This can be explained simply with a single word: replacement. The reason it doesn't grow as much is that newcomers end up replacing—and in some cases, displacing, due to high housing prices, for example—those who already lived there. From 2014 to 2024, Barcelona's population increased from 1.6 million to 1.7 million, a rise of just over 5%. The city's native population is declining, and 2019 marked a turning point: for the first time, those registered as residents who weren't born in the city surpassed those born in Barcelona, who now represent only 45% of the population. As for Barcelonans born abroad, they now make up a third of the total.

But if there is one unique phenomenon that has grown strongly in the last fifteen years, mainly in the city of Barcelona and its immediate area, it is that of the exadosDespite being few in number compared to the total, their arrival immigrants of high socioeconomic status, from developed countries –often with incomes above the Catalan and national average– and who settle here for work, studies, or simply seeking a change of pace, have transformed the character of businesses and the neighborhoods where they are most concentrated. Barcelona City Council estimates that the figure was around 100,000 in 2023. While, on the one hand, new residents are arriving, on the other hand, the Catalan capital is experiencing an unstoppable exodus of young families with small children who are packing their bags to move to other municipalities. Barcelona's population is aging –the census places the average age at 44– and those under 16 are fewer than ever, now representing only 12% of residents, according to 2024 census data. Behind this emigration lies, primarily, the increasingly impossible access to housing due to the ever-more-unaffordable cost of apartments.

The expanding wave of housing

The rising cost of housing has undoubtedly been the main driver of internal migration in Catalonia, which has been in crescendo In recent years, this trend has reached unprecedented levels in some municipalities within the first and second metropolitan rings. Barcelona has lost population, but so have many other municipalities, triggering an expansion reflected in many population registers. L'Hospitalet de Llobregat and Sant Cugat del Vallès, to cite just two examples, have gained 11% and 13% of their populations, respectively, in the last decade, well above Barcelona's 5% growth. Terrassa, the country's third most populous city, registered 13,000 new residents last year alone. Approximately half were newly arrived foreigners, but some 6,000 came from other municipalities in the metropolitan area. Today, practically one in four Catalans – 23% – have been arriving in their municipality of residence for five years or less, according to 2024 data from Idescat. In some places the number of new residents rises to a third of the total, as is the case in the Baix Penedès region – in Calafell or Cunit – where the arrival of families looking for cheaper housing also It is joined by retirees who, since the pandemic, have been using their second home as their main residence.

All these internal movements are, to a large extent, an expression of the critical problem that housing is—and has remained so for the past fifteen years—in our country. None of the policies adopted so far have managed to alleviate the sense of anxiety that has made it the primary concern when citizens are asked. If at the beginning of the century the problem was mortgages and the financial bubble, after the pandemic it has been the endless climb in rental prices. And now, more than fifteen years after the housing crisis, with rent regulation policies that have failed to bring prices down, the perfect storm has arrived. Accessing or paying rent is more difficult than ever, but buying a home is practically the same.

In Barcelona and its surrounding areas, rental regulations have found loopholes such as seasonal rentals, short-term contracts, and market-rate options—impossible for many families to afford due to the resulting insecurity—and the supply from those who haven't drastically reduced their prices, making the search for a rental a true jungle. Some landlords have opted to withdraw their properties from the market or put them up for sale.

All this, with the added pressure that tourism puts on Regarding the housing stock, which coexists with thousands of tourist apartments that, despite being regulated and having licenses obtained years ago, further strain the supply. In fact, the Barcelona City Council has promised Eliminate the city's 10,000 tourist apartments and convert them into residential housing by 2029

The growing demand for housing in a context of population growth is putting pressure on the market in many municipalities. Industry experts advocate expanding the available housing stock as a solution—that is, building more—and this seems to be the direction some government measures are taking. The Generalitat has announced the construction of more than 200,000 new public housing units in the coming years. The problem, of course, is that all this cannot be done overnight, and the bottleneck is already upon us, threatening not only the economy but also social cohesion, with large groups—especially young people, working families, and migrants—excluded from the market.

In parallel with new construction, some experts insist that it is necessary to address other regulatory aspects to change some of the rules governing the real estate market. Following the regulation of current rents, the Generalitat has now announced that it is studying Measures to stop speculative housing purchasesA promise still fraught with uncertainties regarding its viability and market impact.

Planning: the urgency in public services

The population boom cannot overshadow all the challenges to social cohesion and integration it entails. The plans made for a Catalonia of 8 million are worthless because that milestone has been reached sooner than anticipated. Many municipalities explained to ARA a few months ago that they have seen how the growth of the last decade has overwhelmed them without being accompanied by a corresponding increase in other services, such as social services, healthcare, or long-term care. Furthermore, transport infrastructure has not been strengthened to meet the population's new mobility needs. The planning that many municipalities criticize as having been lacking until now is the major challenge for the coming years. Demographic projections indicate that population growth will continue, and regardless of whether or not Catalonia will reach 10 million in a few decades, it is necessary to prepare and alleviate the strain on public services that are already showing signs of saturation. Identifying areas where new construction is possible—the new neighborhoods of the future—is a first step, but it's also necessary to address the rehabilitation of many older town centers and unblock long-standing projects for essential services that were promised but never implemented. We're talking about new regional hospitals, nursing homes, improved and expanded public transportation, and strengthened social services in the areas where the growing population makes them most urgently needed.