The initial state report on the origin of swine fever reinforces the sandwich theory hypothesis.
The document rules out sabotage and that the outbreak originated from a leak at IRTA.
BarcelonaThe sandwich theory – the possibility that the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) originated from contaminated food – is gaining traction again. This Monday, the Ministry of Agriculture released the initial report from the scientific committee commissioned by the Spanish government to study the origin of the ASF outbreak in Bellaterra. Despite being a preliminary document, the experts rule out sabotage, natural transmission, or an accidental laboratory leak as the cause of the crisis. Instead, they consider the sandwich theory to be "coherent" and "compatible" with explaining the origin of the ASF outbreak.
Thus, the initial report from the Spanish government also rules out that the outbreak was as a result of a leak at IRTA-Cresa, as had been speculated a few months agoThe document, reviewed by ARA, details that the results of supplementary analyses carried out by independent organizations showed no genetic match between the virus isolated in the Cerdanyola outbreak area and the viruses used in experimental activities at IRTA-Cresa, neither in terms of partial markers nor at the genome level. The state report comes a month and a half after The study commissioned by the Government ruled out that the African swine fever outbreak originated at IRTA. and stated that the variant detected in Cerdanyola does not match any known sample.
Beyond ruling out a possible laboratory escape, the analysis also describes how the so-called "sandwich theory" is "consistent" with historical patterns of ASF virus spread and "compatible" with several epidemiological elements observed in the outbreak detected in Catalonia. In this regard, the committee of researchers points to the isolated appearance of the outbreak, without epidemiological continuity with previously affected areas; the absence of intermediate outbreaks in neighboring countries, including territories with high detection and surveillance capacity; the location of the outbreak in a highly connected environment, with high human mobility and a dense network of road and rail infrastructure; and the genetic divergence with respect to the dominant lineages in Europe, including the closest ones from northern Italy, which suggests an introduction not linked to the known geographical expansion.
No certainty about the geographical origin
Although the scientists on the Spanish committee find the sandwich theory plausible as an explanation for how African swine fever (ASF) was reintroduced into Spain, they also caution that currently "the available genetic information does not allow us to definitively attribute the geographic origin of the outbreak." In this regard, they assert that it is "premature" to make a definitive statement about the origin of the outbreak "without the ongoing judicial and administrative investigations having concluded." In fact, the Spanish investigation—of which this initial report is a part—is still open, as is the police investigation by the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan Police) and the Guardia Civil (Spanish Civil Guard). A registration was made at IRTAThe case is in the hands from the court of Cerdanyola del Vallès and the investigations are being carried out under seal.
