Pandemic decline slows and threatens a new spike in Europe

londonThe decline in covid cases has stalled in recent days after the last two weekly epidemiological reports by the World Health Organisation (WHO), released on Tuesday, stated that the pandemic was globally on the decline. A judgement perhaps "hasty", according to Dani Lopez, a member of the Computational Biology and Complex Systems Group at the Polytechnic University of Catalonia, a team that regularly prepares reports for the European Commission on the evolution of infections.

The WHO data, published on 9 and February 16 indicated a fall. The former, in particular, showed "a decrease of 17% compared to the previous week". While confirming that "there are still many countries with an increasing number of infections, globally the [downward] trend is encouraging," it said. Seven days later, in the conclusions drawn up by the WHO from the information sent by states to the UN agency, the agency said there had been another 16% drop in infections, a little over half a million fewer new cases, still compared to the previous week.

The downward trend, which has been experienced since the week of January 4, with a gradual decrease in infections, has been favoured mainly by what Dani Lopez calls the Biden effect, which has begun to be felt above all "since mid-January". The U.S. has been "the main engine of this decline," insists Lopez in a telephone conversation, who also speaks of a "stabilisation" of Brazil, until recently one of the rampant foci of the pandemic.

The abrupt change "of mentality and message" that has been given from the White House has had an immediate translation in absolute figures. It is quite significant that almost two weeks after Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States, between January 20 and February 9, daily infections have been consistently below 100,000. Even more dramatic is the near 180-degree turnaround when you think that on Dec. 20 the country peaked at 402,000 infections in just 24 hours. This Tuesday, 55,323 have been reported.

Stabilisation and risk

The latest analysis of the UPC group, published on Monday, showed a more worrying landscape and a more worrying evolution on the European continent. "The overall decline in the European Union, plus the United Kingdom and the EFTA countries [Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein], is slowing and the transmission rate (Rt) is increasing to about 1. This slowdown is observed in most countries. The average 14-day cumulative incidence is 266 cases per 100,000 population, a fairly high number."

The most severe situations are in the Czech Republic, with an Effective Potential Growth of more than 1,200 and a 14-day cumulative incidence of 1,100 cases per 100,000 population. Hungary, Luxembourg and Poland also have a higher risk based on the Rt, around 1.2.

No one escapes the virus. "It is time to be cautious," says Lopez, who recalls that "as progress is made in vaccination, measures can be relaxed. Once again, his appeal, and that of other specialists, is to warn against the false euphoria of the steady decline in recent weeks, in this case in Catalonia and Spain. It is necessary to stay alert and not make the same mistakes as in previous waves. López is worried about "the stabilisations" in Germany, France and also in Catalonia, where the Rt is already close to the value of 1: "After the stabilisation, the threat is to grow again".

Comparisons

A more global look from the data handled by the WHO, the group of the UPC and other academic centres that follow the evolution of the pandemic since it broke out shows that the focus of the worst management continues to be concentrated in the Western world. Excluding Russia, Europe already exceeds the United States in daily cases: more than one hundred thousand.

As a summary, David Lopez again insists on "looking at how other countries in other environments have dealt with the pandemic", in countries such as South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and Australia. "If we open all at once, we will again grow in number of cases. And the cost will be much higher."