Fewer caregivers, fewer bars and more taxes: this is what Spain would be like without immigrants in 2075
The Spanish government concludes that with 30% fewer migrants, GDP would plummet and healthcare, education, and agriculture would suffer.
BarcelonaThe picture of a Spain with closed borders to immigration paints a picture of an aging society, but also of significant losses, both in population and in the workforce in essential sectors such as care, education, and healthcare. There would also be an inevitable increase in taxes and even the closure of schools, bars, shops, and farms. This almost dystopian scenario answers the following question: what would Spain be like in 2075 if migration flows were reduced by 30%, following the restrictive policies implemented by almost all members of the European Union?
The Spanish government commissioned the National Office for Foresight and Strategy of the Ministry of the Presidency to provide a 50-year outlook, based on academic and scientific research and official data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE), analyzing the impact of the immigrant population on the country. The experts concluded that if migration flows are halted, all the indicators studied worsen.
Less population
For example, one of the first areas to be affected would be demographics. For more than three decades, the fertility rate of Spanish women has been below two children (which prevents generational replacement), and the arrival of young immigrants has slowed the demographic decline of the native population. Thus, projections under the scenario of maintained migration flows would allow the population to reach around 55 million by 2075. Conversely, if the rate were to fall by only 30%, there would be a loss of 15 million inhabitants, bringing the population down to 40 million. Today it stands at 49 million.
At the presentation of the report held this Wednesday in Madrid, Josquin Recaño, professor of geography at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and researcher at the Center for Demographic Studies, warned that the low birth rate is a global phenomenon, which is "unexpectedly" also affecting regions like Latin America and the Latin American average. In fact, he predicted that "the birth rate is neither here nor expected."
Fewer workers
Spain is already an aging country, and once again, young migration has been able to counterbalance this by slowing the aging and demographic decline. However, the native population is much older than at the end of the last century, and life expectancy has increased, a circumstance that leads to greater dependency and chronic illness. In rural areas (in Catalonia, a third of the 947 municipalities have fewer than 500 inhabitants), a hypothetical reduction in immigration would be most pronounced, since residents are even older than the national average and therefore require more support. In the worst-case scenario with less immigration, experts estimate that the working-age population would decrease by 9 million people, and they assert that this situation would lead to a loss of economic strength and vitality, as well as a decline in innovation, with a high cost at all levels. At this point, the authors emphasize, immigration has been the economic engine because it has boosted trade and consumption, expanded the labor supply, and filled vacancies due to high demand. In fact, the macroeconomic impact would mean a 20% drop in GDP, equivalent to four times the revenue of the tourism sector, but there would also be effects at the micro level, because with less economic dynamism, individual incomes would decrease by €18,000 annually. Without enough caregivers
The forecast indicates that with less labor, some sectors would see their viability threatened and would need to rethink their strategies to rely primarily on immigrant workers. Which sectors would these be? The care sector is one of the hardest hit, as it would be unable to cope with the increase in dependent individuals and would, conversely, lose three out of every ten professionals. Another sector is agriculture, where up to 220,000 farms, a third of the current number, would be at risk. The hospitality and tourism industries would also be affected: as many workers as are currently employed in 90,000 bars and restaurants, representing half of the current supply, would be lost. These figures would translate not only into fewer open bars but also into a general increase in the prices of menus and tapas, while also impacting the social fabric and the social function of these establishments. Impact on schools and health centers
Spain is not immune to the shortage of medical personnel and has had to resort to foreign professionals to continue caring for patients at all levels of the healthcare system. If we examine the scenario of reduced immigration, the workforce in 50 years will be smaller, with a loss of some 64,000 specialists. Those who remain will have to cope with a 4% increase in patients, which will lengthen waiting lists. Regarding another essential service, education, in this scenario 32,000 primary school classrooms and 18,000 secondary school classrooms would have to close. A blow to the welfare state.
Even in the case of social benefits, the fiscal balance of immigration—the difference between what immigrants contribute and what they spend—is positive because their direct and indirect taxes contribute to the pension system and the welfare state. The report indicates that if the arrival of newcomers were to be curbed, the net contribution of immigration would fall by 27%, the equivalent of 0.4% of GDP or four times the gross salary of all firefighters across the country, for example. This loss could only be offset by a tax increase, and experts suggest that 6% more VAT or 14% more corporate tax would need to be raised.
