ERC shoots up in Barcelona and treads on PSC's heels, according to the municipal barometer

BarcelonaWith less than a year to go until the municipal elections, the Barcelona City Council's barometer has provided an approximate snapshot this Friday of where the electoral race stands right now. According to the survey, the elections in the Catalan capital would be a duel between the current mayor, Jaume Collboni, and the leader of Esquerra Republicana in the council, Elisenda Alamany. Although the socialists appear as the preferred option of those surveyed with 13% —almost one point more than six months ago—, the republicans are soaring compared to the last wave of the barometer and are positioned at 11.1%.

The rise of Esquerra — which half a year ago had a 7.8% direct voting intention — is the most notable aspect of a survey that consolidates dynamics that were already emerging in the last barometer in November. The decline of Barcelona en Comú is accentuated, which remains in third position, but with only 4.7% of the votes — compared to 6.9% six months ago —; Aliança confirms its irruption in the Catalan capital and, although it loses some strength — 3.3%, six tenths less than in December —, it remains ahead of Junts, which falls to seventh position with only 2.6% of the votes, behind parties like the PP (3.1%) and Vox (2.7%). Finally, the CUP obtains (2.3%).

It should be taken into account, however, that the municipal barometer offers raw data and therefore does not make projections in terms of councilors. The data is extracted from the direct response given by respondents when asked what they would vote for in an election in the Catalan capital. Specifically, the results come from 800 telephone interviews conducted with Barcelonians over 18 years of age between May 26 and June 3. When reading the results, it also stands out that 45.1% of respondents say they do not know who to vote for or do not want to answer, and that 9.8% already say they will abstain and 1.6% will cast a blank vote.

Goodbye to PSC-ERC harmony?

Collboni, therefore, sees how his main partner so far in this term could now become his main threat. Alamany herself has verbalized this in a statement in which she said that the Republicans are "very close to disputing the mayoralty of the country from the PSC". It remains to be seen whether, with this scenario, the rapport that socialists and republicans have maintained in the City Council so far will continue in the final stretch of the term in the Catalan capital.

Despite the good forecasts left by the poll published this Friday, there are also some data that cool the optimism of the Republicans. For example, the voting memory of ERC — people who say they voted for them in the 2023 municipal elections — is much higher than those who actually did, and this means that the data must be taken with caution. Also, despite being the best-rated leader — 5.2 points, ahead of Collboni's 5.1, Jordi Martí's 5, and Gerardo Pisarello's 4.7 — Alamany is only known by 46.5% of those polled.

The poll, on the other hand, leaves more worrying data for two parties that have governed the city recently. To begin with, Barcelona en Comú continues its decline since Ada Colau's departure and obtains a direct voting intention of 4.7%, less than half of the 10.8% it had two years ago and far from the 11.9% it obtained in the elections. Worse is the case of Junts, which after winning the elections in 2023 with 13.5% of the votes, is now the seventh force with 2.6%.

Regulation of commercial rents

In a press conference, the first deputy mayor, Laia Bonet, gave a positive assessment of the results in terms of municipal government. She highlighted that the PSC is the leading force in direct voting intention and has grown by nine tenths compared to the previous barometer. She also boasted about the endorsement that some of the measures promoted by the executive have among citizens. Among them, the 75% who agree with banning tourist apartments, the 69% who support limiting the opening of 24-hour supermarkets, and the 59.9% who support limiting cruise ship stops in the city.

In this regard, the inclusion in the barometer of a question about regulating the rent price of commercial premises in Barcelona is noteworthy. 76.4% of respondents are very or quite in agreement with adopting measures in this regard. Bonet framed the issue within the municipal government's concern "to support local businesses," but did not advance whether the City Council plans to promote any regulation in this regard. A possibility that has also always raised legal doubts.

Increase in concern about insecurity

Although the survey was conducted before the latest shootings in the city —the one on Balmes street where a man was murdered or the more recent one in La Pegaso park where a teenager was killed—, the barometer does show a slight increase in insecurity among citizens' concerns. Although access to housing continues to be the main concern —31%, compared to 32.8% six months ago—, insecurity remains in second place but with an increase. 26.3% of those surveyed identify it as the main problem, compared to 25.2% who did so last November. The number of citizens who consider immigration to be the problem that concerns them most is also growing. 7.5% of those surveyed think so, compared to 6% in November.