ERC shoots up in Barcelona and treads on PSC's heels, according to the municipal barometer

BarcelonaWith less than a year to go until the municipal elections, the Barcelona City Council's barometer has provided an approximate snapshot this Friday of where the electoral race stands right now. According to the survey, the elections in the Catalan capital would be a duel between the current mayor, Jaume Collboni, and the leader of Esquerra Republicana in the council, Elisenda Alamany. Although the socialists appear as the preferred option of those surveyed with 13% – almost a point more than six months ago –, the republicans are soaring compared to the last wave of the barometer and stand at 11.1%.

The rise of Esquerra – which half a year ago had a 7.8% direct voting intention – is the most notable aspect of a survey that consolidates dynamics that were already emerging in the November barometer. The decline of Barcelona en Comú is accentuated, which remains in third position but only with 4.7% of the votes – compared to 6.9% six months ago –; Aliança Catalana confirms its breakthrough in the Catalan capital and, although it loses some strength – 3.3%, six tenths less than in December –, it continues ahead of Junts, which falls to seventh position, with only 2.6% of the votes, behind parties such as the PP (3.1%) and Vox (2.7%). Finally, the CUP obtains 2.3%.

It should be taken into account, however, that the municipal barometer offers raw data and therefore does not make projections in terms of councilors. The data are extracted from the direct response given by those surveyed when asked what they would vote for in an election in the Catalan capital. Specifically, the results come from 800 telephone interviews conducted with Barcelona residents over 18 years of age between May 26 and June 3. When reading the results, it is also noteworthy that 45.1% of those surveyed say they do not know who they will vote for or do not wish to answer, and that 9.8% already say they will abstain and 1.6% will cast a blank vote.

Goodbye to PSC-ERC harmony?

Collboni, therefore, sees how his main partner in this term so far could now become his main threat. Alamany herself verbalized this in a statement in which she said that the Republicans are "very close to disputing the mayoralty of the country from the PSC". It remains to be seen whether, with this scenario, the harmony that socialists and republicans have maintained in the City Council so far will continue in the final stretch of the term in the Catalan capital.

Despite the good forecasts from the poll published this Friday, there are also some data that temper the optimism of the Republicans. For example, the recall of ERC's vote – the people who say they voted for them in the 2023 municipal elections – is much higher than the number of people who actually voted for them, and this means that the data must be taken with caution. Also, despite being the best-valued leader – 5.2 points, ahead of Collboni's 5.1, Jordi Martí's 5, and Gerardo Pisarello's 4.7 – Alamany is only known by 46.5% of those surveyed.

The poll, on the other hand, leaves more worrying data for two parties that have governed the city recently. Firstly, Barcelona en Comú continues its decline since Ada Colau's departure and obtains a direct voting intention of 4.7%, less than half of the 10.8% it had two years ago and far from the 11.9% it obtained in the elections. Worse is the case of Junts, which after winning the elections in 2023 with 13.5% of the votes is now the seventh force with 2.6%. From the Junts ranks, the spokesperson in the council, Neus Munté, has emphasized that the poll is prior to her party's primaries and that being a direct voting intention offers "a significant margin of error". For the Comuns, Marc Serra has admitted that the results "are not good" but has expressed confidence in mobilizing a good part of the electorate that has not yet decided its vote.

Regulation of shop rentals

In a press conference, the first deputy mayor, Laia Bonet, gave a positive assessment of the results in terms of municipal government. She highlighted that the PSC is the leading force in direct voting intention and has grown by nine tenths compared to the previous barometer. She also boasted about the support some of the executive's initiatives have among citizens. Among them, 75% agree with prohibiting tourist apartments, 69% support limiting the opening of 24-hour supermarkets, and 59.9% support limiting cruise ship stops in the city.

In this regard, the inclusion in the barometer of a question about the regulation of rental prices for commercial premises in Barcelona is noteworthy. 76.4% of those surveyed are very or quite in agreement with adopting measures in this regard. Bonet framed the issue within the municipal government's concern "to support local businesses," but did not advance whether the City Council plans to promote any regulation in this regard. A possibility that, moreover, has always raised legal doubts.

Increase in concern about insecurity

Although the survey was conducted before the latest shootings in the city – the one on Balmes street, where a man was murdered, and the more recent one in Parc de la Pegaso, where a teenager was killed –, the barometer does show a slight increase in insecurity among citizens' concerns. Although access to housing continues to be the main concern – 31%, compared to 32.8% six months ago –, insecurity remains in second place, but with an increase: 26.3% of respondents identify it as the main problem, compared to 25.2% last November. The number of citizens who consider immigration to be the problem that worries them most also increased: 7.5%, compared to 6% last November.