Covid stagnates in Catalonia and first suspected cases of Brazilian variant detected

Santa Coloma de Gramenet"The covid-19 curve is flattening and it is not good news," warned the Secretary of Public Health, Josep Maria Argimon, on Wednesday. After weeks of progressive decline, but also uncertainty about the behaviour of the virus in the short term, the epidemiological improvement seems to be entering a phase of stagnation. This is beginning to worry the health authorities for two very clear reasons: on the one hand, we must know if it is due to the effects of new variants, which could cause cases to soar once again; and, secondly, if this were so, the starting point is still too high for the health system to be able withstand the pressure. "We may think that the variants are stopping the decline, but this is only a hypothesis. We will have to be very vigilant about whether this flattening takes hold and ask ourselves the reasons behind it."

While the British variant, which could become predominant before March, already accounts for at least 32% of the cases being identified in Catalonia, the South African and Brazilian mutations, which are even more contagious, also threaten to spread. In fact, Argimon has confirmed the detection of the first two suspected cases of the Brazilian variant in Catalonia. The Blood and Tissue Bank reported on Tuesday the partial sequencing of two cases that corresponded to a group of friends and family of six people. Although at the moment the samples are not 100% sequenced, the part analysed so far has all the specific mutations of this variant. Until the weekend Health will not be able to confirm whether these people have been infected by the new variant, but microbiologists are completely convinced. In addition, two more infections of the South African variant have been detected, bringing the number of cases of this mutation to three.

"It seems that the Brazilian variant is a variant that causes more infection but not more severe disease. However, all this knowledge is acquired over time," Argimon said in his weekly press conference. Among the unknowns is whether this mutation could favour reinfection - there are studies that suggest that it could affect people who have already contracted the virus - and whether vaccination may not be as effective in controlling it. However, Argimon recalled that it was too early to draw conclusions, because scientific evidence is lacking, and stressed the high efficacy of the vaccines being administered, which in some cases such as Pfizer's is over 95%. Although the new variants can "diminish it", the protective effect of vaccines would be equally high, he said.

78% of cases in Osona have the British mutation

The Secretary of Public Health has acknowledged that today the British variant is gaining a foothold in Catalonia, where it already represents a third of the detected infections, but has advanced that the affectation is spread unevenly. While in the area of Barcelona, the most densely populated, it accounts for just over 30% of cases, in the region of Osona 78% of the cases studied already correspond to this mutation. In fact, Argimon has stated that it is the region with the most infections caused by this variant.

At this point, hospitals in Osona, the University Hospital of Vic and the University Hospital of Santa Creu de Vic, attend about sixty people, 17 of whom are critical and in the ICU. In addition, this week 422 cases have been detected and eight people have died from complications related to covid. "In principle the indicators and the curve [in Osona] are going down slowly and we are following the evolution very closely, as well as in Garrotxa," said Argimon, who has admitted that everything indicates that the surge in cases in these regions could be due to the expansion of the British variant.

But the situation is dangerous throughout the country. Argimon has remarked that ICUs are still very full, with 612 critical people, and has warned that if a fourth wave began now, it would be with 300 fewer available beds compared to the third wave, which began with only 320 patients in hospital. In addition, this Sunday is the last day of the restrictions currently in force. Argimon has said that the Procicat has not yet taken a decision on the possible relaxation of measures seeing this delay of the epidemiological improvement. However, he insisted that in recent weeks containment measures have hardly been relaxes and has ruled out that the flattening of the curve could be due precisely to this relaxation of measures in the hospitality industry or the opening of regional mobility. "We have to wait a few days, we can not anticipate what will happen".