Health Department warns of risk of fourth wave despite decline in cases

Santa Coloma de GramenetExactly one year after the first diagnosis of coronavirus in Catalonia, Catalan Health Minister Alba Vergés has warned that the fourth wave is on the cards. The epidemiological indicators accumulate "days of stagnation", with a very slow and weak decline in new positives, and the threat of new variants - which already account for 40% of the cases detected - have led to an increase in some key data for the control of the epidemic, such as the rate of contagion (Rt).

The virus continues to spread at a rate of 1, the threshold that reveals that it is expanding again, due to the impact of the new variants. At this point, a hundred people infect, on average, 101 more people, which means that the chains of transmission are not being cut. In addition, Vergés has warned that ICUs are still too full, with 587 critically ill covid patients of and warned that "complicated" weeks lie ahead: "The epidemic is not over: it is imperative that we contain the possibility of a fourth wave and its magnitude".

Tomorrow the Procicat will meet to evaluate the restrictions and decide whether to "give air" to the most affected sectors. The Government will only reopen those that a priori do not directly affect the curve of contagion, such as non-essential trade, but Vergés stressed that Catalonia is not "in a position to consider a de-escalation. The Government, she said, has to "move with great caution".

Thus, Vergés has pointed out that this week "small modifications" in the restrictions will be discussed. "We cannot speak of a very pronounced reopening, but we can fix certain aspects," she insisted. Acting vice-president and Economy and Finance minister Pere Aragonès insisted that "although the pandemic is increasingly controlled and has less capacity for incidence, it remains a major threat in our lives". "The current data and the arrival and detection of new variants remind us that we cannot relax for a single moment," he admitted.

On the possibility that behind the epidemiological trend change are the elections of 14-F, Vergés has closed ranks with the statements of the Secretary of Public Health, Josep Maria Argimon, who yesterday said that it did not seem that this could be the case. "Neither due to Feb 14 nor to any specific cause," admitted Vergés, although she pointed out that the impact of the new variants could be the cause.

Much uncertainty among experts

What is clear is that there is great uncertainty among health authorities, but also among experts, in the face of epidemiological behaviour. The group of researchers from the UPC BIOCOM-SC, responsible for preparing the reports that are sent to the European Commission, suggests that cases will continue to fall in the coming days, but at a very slow pace. This week and next week will be key to see how the current measures interact with the British variant, which has increased its presence in the country and that in areas such as the Vall d'Aran and now causes 92% of infections

Although the great explosion of infections due to this mutation has not occurred, as several mathematical models predicted considering the behaviour of the variant in other places like the UK, BIOCOM admits that they can not know if the current restrictions will contain the rise in cases in the coming weeks

They are not the only ones worried. The head of preventive medicine and epidemiology of Vall d'Hebron Hospital, Magda Campins, calls for people to be aware of the situation and not to relax measures, except those that are "very minimal" for economic reasons. "We can not save Easter as we saved Christmas, because we have already seen the price we have paid," she said in statements to ACN. Campins warns that if it is done, in a context with more circulation of new variants, the situation can be "critical".

Campins attributes the change in trend of the epidemiological data to the circulation of the British variant and think a fourth wave is "possible" although she does not think it can be "as terrible" as in the UK, since Catalonia has already deployed restrictive measures. However, the epidemiologist recalls how she went from the "disbelief" at what was happening in China to the "anguish" when she saw that the pandemic would be a reality in Catalonia. When the coronavirus arrived in Italy she was aware that it was "a matter of days" before it crossed the Mediterranean.

The authorities were too "gullible" a year ago

Precisely this Wednesday, and coinciding with the anniversary of the first detected case of coronavirus in the country, Aragonès and Vergés have visited the Hospital Clínic, the center that treated patient zero diagnosed in Catalonia, an Italian woman who lives in Barcelona and who had travelled to her country of birth in the previous days. "Today we review and take stock of a first year of pandemic, but we must emphasise that unfortunately the pandemic is not over and the efforts being made will have to be maintained until we get herd immunity," Aragonès insisted

Vergés admitted that the authorities were too "gullible" a year ago, when the virus was not seen as a real threat to the health system or society. "Throughout the epidemic we have taken very delicate and complex decisions, some with much success and others not so much, such as the closure of schools, but all in the spirit of learning from what we have experienced," he said

Vergés stressed that the entire health system had to be transformed in just three weeks to focus exclusively on the coronavirus. As an example, the minister recalled that before the pandemic 600,000 units of PPE were used per week and now 5 million are used. The pandemic -as the vice-president Aragonès recalled- has reversed the logic of health services, but also of the whole of socio-economic activity.

"We have all, in one way or another, adapted our lives to the logic of the pandemic, we have made enormous efforts and we have sacrificed part of our social life," said Aragonès. He also stressed that despite the aid that has been deployed, many "perfectly viable" companies and businesses before the pandemic now go through serious difficulties due to the restrictions, and some have had to close down. "This has been a very tough year. For many of us it has been the worst year of our lives," said the acting vice president

Catalonia will not make vaccination compulsory

Despite everything, Vergés has remarked that there are several differences with respect to what happened a year ago. The most important: the vaccination strategy. Despite the obstacles in the smooth arrival of doses, the Government argues that vaccination will play a key role in reversing the epidemiological situation and has demanded the State and the European Union to "solve the problems of supply of vaccines" to advance the campaign as planned. "Many more vaccines are needed to speed up the process, we are ready to administer them," said Aragonès.

What Catalonia will not do is to follow in the footsteps of Galicia and make vaccination against covid mandatory. "We do not consider this measure because it is contradictory to the principles on which the right to public health is based. The fact that it is not mandatory does not make it less important, we simply believe that it will be through information and experience that the acceptance of the entire population will be achieved," Aragonès has defended.