“I will leave for Greece and then to Cyprus”. At 22 years old, Reem works in the Christian Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem and already has a plan to leave. She has a job and a stable economic situation, but she does not imagine her future there. Her family lives abroad and she wants to follow her path. “I cannot continue in a country where every other moment we are at war, I want to have better opportunities”, she explains. Her case reflects the unrest of a part of Israeli society that, after three years marked by the conflict, is beginning to wonder if it still makes sense to stay.

“A Jewish and Arab government, together” was the demand repeated last Saturday at one of the demonstrations in Jerusalem after the elections. On the street, some Israelis were asking that Arab parties be able to participate in the future government. In Parliament, this possibility remains the main obstacle to ousting Benjamin Netanyahu from power.

Support for the State of Israel, in the midst of the genocide in Gaza, has been one of the issues that weighed on the resounding defeat of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in Tuesday's elections in the United States. American public opinion has changed in these three years, and the defense of Israel is no longer a cross-party consensus policy within the bipartisan system. Democratic President Joe Biden, a staunch defender of Israel, had said and repeated that "if Israel did not exist, we would have to invent it," and the support of Trump's favorite son-in-law, Jared Kushner, for Israel and his investments in the Israeli military industry is well known. But on Tuesday, candidates critical of Benjamin Netanyahu's government and the Zionist project won in key states. And now, the Democratic majority in both chambers could cause the White House's support for Tel Aviv to change.

Gadi Eisenkot is gaining ground in the race to be tasked with forming Israel's next government. The former Chief of Staff of the Israeli army has garnered 67 recommendations, compared to Benjamin Netanyahu's 46, placing him in the lead during presidential consultations. The options for Eisenkot have increased after the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism announced that it will not recommend any candidate to President Isaac Herzog, and the two Arab factions expressed their support for the former general. The endorsements, however, do not yet guarantee his investiture.

The results of the Israeli elections forecast an even more polarized political situation. In this context of confusion, the figure of Donald Trump emerges as an arbiter, and it must not be forgotten that the President of the United States has always shown particular deference toward the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Benjamin Netanyahu, amid the difficulties in gathering the necessary support to remain at the head of the government, has opened a new political front: questioning Tuesday's elections, in which he lost his parliamentary majority. “The elections in Israel have been stolen,” the prime minister's party, Likud, has repeated on several occasions, accusing Arab parties of having manipulated the result.

Israel has finished counting the votes, but the result has not clarified who will govern the country. The Tuesday's legislative elections have left Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu's party, with 27 seats, a figure that does not guarantee him a parliamentary majority, and have opened negotiations in which all government options have a political cost. The opposition can try to remove the prime minister with the support of the Arab parties, explore a unity government with him, or take the risk of new elections. Netanyahu, meanwhile, still has an ace up his sleeve: if his adversaries cannot reach an agreement, he could remain in power.

Waiting for the slow count of Tuesday's elections in Israel to finish, it is already clear that one of the keys has been the record turnout of the Arab minority, who represent 20% of Israel's population. This community had always been traditionally abstentionist because it did not feel represented in a state that treats them as second-class citizens. Unlike the Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank (whom Israel has never wanted to consider citizens so as not to lose its Jewish demographic majority), Palestinians with Israeli citizenship have the right to vote. And this time they have exercised it massively: 70% went to the polls, an unprecedented percentage.

In 1996, the Israelis went to sleep convinced that Shimon Peres would continue to be prime minister and woke up with Benjamin Netanyahu in power. Thirty years later, history seems to be repeating itself. Last night, the first exit polls had fueled the hopes of the opposition, but as the count progressed, Netanyahu returned to the center of the stage.

With the results of the parliamentary elections in Israel on the table, some possible scenarios are opening up, although caution must accompany speculation, because they are very diverse scenarios and can easily go in one direction or the other. The only thing clear in principle is that Benjamin Netanyahu has lost the majority in Parliament, largely due to the high number of seats obtained by the Arab parties.

Israel is heading towards a new stage of political uncertainty, as the count of Tuesday's elections progresses, with 85% of the vote scrutinized. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's party, Likud, has been the most voted, but it would not obtain enough seats to form a government with the current coalition partners: it would remain with 53 seats in a 120-seat parliament. The opposition bloc, led by former general Gadi Eisenkot, who is in second place, would remain with 48 seats. At this moment, Likud would obtain 26 seats and Yashar, Eisenkot's party, 21. Amidst these two blocs, the groups representing Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, who would total 17 deputies, could hold the key to governability.

“Do you think war will return?”. In Israel, the question hangs over elections marked by uncertainty. “It's not a question of whether it returns or not, but of when,” more and more people respond, convinced that ceasefires have only postponed a new escalation. While the Israelis vote, the entire region looks towards the same question: whether the results will open a door to diplomacy or if, once the polls are closed, the weapons will speak again.

Israel is holding parliamentary elections this Tuesday that could mark a turning point after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and three years of war and political crisis. Benjamin Netanyahu aspires to remain in power, while the opposition attempts to turn his attrition into a viable alternative. Turnout by midday was 16.68%, according to the electoral board, one of the highest in the last decade.

Benjamin Netanyahu wants to reach the polls with an image of strength: that of a prime minister capable of speaking as an equal with the President of the United States. Nine days before the Israeli elections, Donald Trump offered him an opportunity to project this image. The American president described the Israeli leader as a “warrior prime minister,” expressed his “full and total support” for his reelection, and attributed to him a decisive role in the offensive against Iran, which began in February. But the endorsement has a paradox: it can strengthen Netanyahu among his voters and, at the same time, serve as a reminder that Washington does not always share his priorities.

The musicians change, but the score remains the same. It is a quite graphic image of Israel's political map in relation to what must be done with the Palestinians. The five men who will challenge Benjamin Netanyahu, who has dominated political life in Israel for the last 25 years, in this Tuesday's elections disagree with the prime minister on many things, but on this there are no fissures. Government and opposition share the same plan to sweep the Palestinians from their land. All five candidates signed a non-aggression pact at the end of September with the aim of unseating Netanyahu, who faces his first test after the greatest security failure in Israel's history with the Palestinian attacks of October 7, 2023. In the text of the agreement they proclaim: “Despite the ideological differences we have among us, the formation of a Zionist government, with a sense of state, dedicated to repair and reconstruction, is our great shared objective”.

The cost of rent, groceries, transport, and bills has become one of the main concerns for Israeli families. A few days before the October 27th elections, many are wondering if the next government will be able to ease this pressure after more than three years of war and high military spending. Security remains central to the campaign, but the economy also weighs on the vote. A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) research center indicates that the cost of living and the economy are priorities for 38% of Jewish respondents and 46% of Arabs. A malaise that is concentrated especially on the rising cost of housing and food, two structural problems that have been dragging on for years.

Returning to Israel has become an arrest for some citizens. Forty-two ultra-Orthodox men who arrived on Tuesday from New York were arrested by military police at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport, accused of evading military service. Twenty-seven of them agreed to join the ranks and were released, and thirteen went through a judicial process and were then imprisoned, although they eventually agreed to go into the army and have been released. But two more went directly from the airport to prison for having avoided recruitment for more than 540 days.

The possibility of a new open war with Iran is once again looming over Israel in the final stretch of the election campaign. Less than a week before the legislative elections on October 27th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has intensified threats against Tehran and asserted the need to resume the military offensive. A rhetorical escalation that coincides with reports of bombing plans that Donald Trump allegedly halted and with the surprise visit of US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, to Israel.

Neither the presence of European diplomats nor a press vest has prevented Israeli settlers from acting with violence again in the West Bank. This Saturday, a group of settlers attacked a European diplomatic delegation in Taybeh, a Christian-majority Palestinian town located east of Ramallah in the West Bank, a territory considered occupied since 1967 by the international community.

Many people do not know this, but 20% of Israel's population is Palestinian. And for the first time in its history, this minority could be key in tipping the result of the Israeli elections on October 27th. Polls point to a 50-50 tie between the governing bloc of Benjamin Netanyahu's right and far-right and the liberal opposition forces. With this almost unprecedented scenario, the Arab minority would hold the key to Netanyahu's defeat, a candidate who is under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for the genocide in Gaza. However, in a context of strong anti-Arab racism, neither the government nor the opposition wants to reach agreements with the parties that represent them. Last month, the electoral board banned all Arab parties from running in the elections, as well as the communists of the only party that brings together Arabs and Jews. The decision was so discriminatory that the Supreme Court reversed it, but only partially. The United Arab List (Ra'am) will be able to run, as will the Unified List. The candidate from one of their parties, Sami Abu Shehadeh, remains banned. The Jewish communist candidate Ofer Cassif will also be able to run. In contrast, Israeli far-right parties with candidates who are under international sanctions for human rights violations have been able to run without problems.