From prison, Oriol Junqueras was the lead candidate for ERC in the Catalan elections of 2017, the general elections of 2019, and also the European elections of that same year. From Esquerra, in fact, they decreed that, as long as the repression lasted, Junqueras would be their number 1 in all elections. But this has not been possible for six years now: even though he is pardoned and out of prison, the president of the Republicans is disqualified until 2031, awaiting whether amnesty will be applied to him. The party's strategy thinking about 2028 depends on this, in fact.

Aliança Catalana is the party that is growing the most in the polls. In the CEO barometer, it is in second position in Parliament and is close to leading the pro-independence bloc. Thousands of potential votes that will have to seek an alternative in the general elections. The party leader, Sílvia Orriols, has committed to incorporating into Aliança Catalana's statutes that they will never run in Spanish elections. Where would these votes go, then?

The PSC would win the parliamentary elections again if they were held today, despite maintaining a downward trend that would take them from the 42 seats obtained in 2024 to a range of between 36 and 38. However, the most relevant image offered by the barometer of the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) made public yesterday is the consolidation of Aliança Catalana on the right of the parliamentary spectrum. Sílvia Orriols' party climbs to 23-25 deputies (it currently has 2) and clearly surpasses Junts per Catalunya, its main rival, which would lose half of its support to a range of between 16 and 18 deputies. ERC is the other party that is rising, consolidating the second position already predicted by other polls, up to 24-26 deputies.

On the night of July 23, 2023, the PP was 1,749 votes short of its sixteenth deputy in Madrid. A week later, it obtained it thanks to the vote of Madrid residents abroad (the PP surpassed the PSOE by 8,600 votes in this count). It was the only incident of the so-called CERA vote (electoral census of absent residents), which the PP and Vox are now criminalizing with an eye on the supposed "rigging" that Pedro Sánchez is preparing for next year.

On June 12, 2023, the PSOE began to leave behind the feeling of defeat. That day, an uninhibited José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero went on Cope to defend Pedro Sánchez's "spectacular" government, laughed at the PP's insinuations of fraud, and stated that he expected nothing more than the re-establishment of a PSOE-led government. Carlos Herrera told him that neither the results of the municipal and regional elections nor the polls predicted it to be a plausible scenario. Zapatero began the comeback.

Mariano Rajoy knows what is expected of him and does not hesitate to give it to his followers. "In football, what really matters is scoring more goals than the opponent. If you don't, you lose. Or, at best, you draw." Yes, the former Spanish president returns to sports commentary for the World Cup and, again, in the digital media El Debate, which four years ago — also for the World Cup and, later, for the European Championship — already opened its doors for him to publish his analyses of the Spanish national team's matches. Rajoy does so without pay and, in fact, without writing: he sends audio notes when the matches end so that the media's editors can transcribe them. He did so this Monday after the draw of La Roja against Cape Verde.

A first wave in March or April; a second in July and a third around November. It has been a long time since the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) established this periodicity for publishing its barometers, the institute's most robust surveys since it started in 2005 (the first was commissioned by Idescat in 2004). But as of June 15, none have been published this year. What has happened at the CEO? As often happens when things don't go as expected, rumors have begun to do their thing, especially on social media. The fact is that the slowness in renewing the framework agreement to approve the companies that collect data has delayed the survey awarding process by four months. A wait that will soon end, because, as ARA has learned, the fieldwork for the first barometer of 2026 is already underway and the CEO intends to make the survey public during the first half of July.

The Zapatero family's jewelry is today the main focus of tension in Spanish politics. The former president of the government has just been charged in a separate piece of the one that Judge of the National Court José Luis Calama was already investigating. The immediate consequence, beyond being summoned to testify again, is that as soon as legal action has been initiated regarding his jewelry, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero can no longer regularize them. Article 305.4 of the Penal Code establishes that he could have done so before the investigating judge formally communicated the opening of proceedings.

In a month's time, Salvador Illa's government will have approved the first budgets of the legislature. An agreement with Comuns and ERC that gives the executive breathing room and certifies that this is currently the only viable majority in Catalonia. Republicans and Comuns already invested Illa and, despite the tug-of-war of the last two years, they continue to be the partners that give him stability. Even to avoid inconvenient appearances by the president in Parliament. This Tuesday, for the second consecutive week, ERC, Comuns, and the PSC prevented the chamber from summoning Illa. Junts wanted him to appear to explain the role of the Generalitat in the crisis opened with public school teachers. Seven days ago, the Junts, with the support of PP and Vox, demanded that the president respond for the cases of alleged corruption that splash the PSOE (and that the judge does not rule out entirely that they have a derivative in the PSC).

The Tax Agency already has on the table a series of requests from the National Court to review the PSOE's accounts, but, on the other hand, it will not have to do so with those of the PSC. Judge Santiago Pedraz has finally excluded the Catalan socialists from the tax requirements, even though the Civil Guard insisted on including the PSC in the investigation. From the PSOE, and from the people implicated in the Leire case, the magistrate is looking for bank accounts, deposits, withdrawals or cash payments and invoices.

"A sum of individual behaviors by fake people, opportunists, and resentful individuals who have used the name of the PSOE in vain and falsely, much to the PSOE's regret." The phrase, written on X by the socialists' organization secretary, Rebeca Torró, summarizes the defense strategy the party has activated to distance itself from the plot that was operating from its headquarters on Ferraz street. The PSOE no longer denies that an organized group might have existed that was dedicated to trying to obtain information from investigations, police, judges, and prosecutors to pressure them. "The summary known today reveals a sum of intolerable behaviors by people who falsely and vainly used the name of the PSOE to benefit themselves or defend dark interests," published, also this Wednesday, the party's official account. What the socialist leadership fully rejects is that they were behind it, as, on the other hand, the investigating judge of the National Court, Santiago Pedraz, does suspect. In fact, the intention of the group allegedly led by Santos Cerdán and Leire Díez was precisely to deactivate the judicial proceedings against the PSOE.

The same day that the judge authorized the Civil Guard to appear at the PSOE headquarters in Madrid, from Carrer Pallars in Barcelona, the PSC sent all the documentation related to its 2024 electoral campaign. Although the request was addressed to the PSOE, the Catalan socialists wanted to get ahead by emphasizing that everything was transparent and audited by the Court of Accounts. With this information, the Central Operative Unit (UCO) of the armed institute is not satisfied and has filed a claim for additional information with the National Court, which Judge Santiago Pedraz has accepted.

It matters little that he is heard dealing with the then director of the Office of Anti-Fraud of Catalonia about the need to air dirty laundry about the main pro-independence leaders. Nor does it matter that conversations with former commissioner José Manuel Villarejo have transpired, speaking openly about Operation Catalonia ("I will deny, even under torture, that this meeting took place," he said in the audios). Not even that there are messages with his number 2, certified by a notary, in which they talk about Kitchen. For years, Jorge Fernández Díaz has played the role of the minister who knew nothing of what was happening around him. A defense strategy that he followed to the letter this Thursday when he testified as the main investigated party in the trial over the espionage of the former PP treasurer Luis Bárcenas.

The PSOE headquarters on Ferraz street in Madrid woke up to the visit of agents from the Operational Action Unit of the Civil Guard. They carried a judicial order for them to be provided with a whole series of information linked to a case under secrecy that the National Court has been investigating for months. In the event that the socialists had refused to provide the documentation to the police, they even had a signed authorization to search the party headquarters. What was Judge Santiago Pedraz looking for there?

He won the last three elections in Catalonia, but the doors of the Generalitat remain closed to the PSC. At least until the next Catalan elections. The socialists are soaring in the polls and if elections were held today in Parliament, Salvador Illa would clearly win with between 39 and 45 seats, ahead of ERC (29-34) and Junts (19-24), who have been losing ground as the legislature progressed. The results are collected by the Barometer of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) which was made public today, the day after Pedro Sánchez's investiture, although the polls were conducted a few weeks ago, before the PSOE's agreements with ERC and Junts. in the July poll, the PSC was also first, but with an estimate of 31-37 seats, practically tied with Esquerra, which obtained between 31 and 36.

All polls agree that the PSC will win the next Catalan elections, but the one presented this Friday by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) is particularly encouraging for the socialists, who would broadly surpass their opponents with a range of between 40 and 47 deputies, growing significantly from the 33 they obtained in 2021. The CEO's poll is also a counter-current poll because it places ERC (31-37) in second position, ahead of Junts (28-34), which would place Pere Aragonès in the fight with Carles Puigdemont to become the candidate for investiture from the pro-independence flank. The director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, has spoken of a "technical tie" between the two parties.

Either Pedro Sánchez with Yolanda Díaz or Alberto Núñez Feijóo with Santiago Abascal. This is the choice that the two main state blocs offer for July 23, and it seems that in Catalonia voters have a clear idea of who to lean towards. The PSC, with Meritxell Batet at the helm, would broadly win the elections and could climb to 16-18 seats, doubling the results of whoever ends up in second place. It would be the first socialist victory in general elections in Catalonia since 2008 when Carme Chacón achieved the party's best historical results with 25 deputies. In any case, the socialist victory in the Principality could end up being bitter if the PP dominates the State as a whole. The latest poll published, by the CIS, assures that nothing has been decided yet, although most polls place the Popular Party well above the Socialists. The CEO also detects a greater predisposition to participate than on other occasions in the general elections, which could reduce abstention in these elections.

The electoral cycle is tinged with blue. The PP has advanced strongly everywhere, but especially in Andalusia, the Valencian Country, and also in Madrid, both in regional and municipal elections. Now it is confident of doing the same in the general elections of July 23, as all surveys predict, including the CIS one. They are, along with Catalonia, the key territories to pave the way to Moncloa. For this reason, it is in the Principality that the socialists are playing a good part of their credit. Pedro Sánchez knows that the differential he achieves with the PP in Catalonia could end up being decisive, especially if he loses momentum in other autonomies. The PSC will win the elections by a wide margin, according to the survey that the Opinòmetre Institute has conducted for ARA. With a range of between 14 and 16 deputies, the socialists will return to first place fifteen years later. And what will be the differential with the PP? The popular party, also on the rise, capturing the majority of Cs' vote, would be left with between 5 and 7 deputies in the Spanish Parliament.

If there is one thing that defines the budget agreement between ERC and the PSC it is that its fulfillment will basically depend on the Spanish government. Specifically, on the PSOE continuing in La Moncloa. The orbital train line, which should be financed by the corresponding ministry; the investment consortium so that Catalonia has decision-making capacity; the change of statutes in the Zona Franca Consortium; the co-management of airports and, obviously, the transfer of IRPF or the approval of a new regional financing model.

On June 2nd, a historic situation will unfold in Spain: for the first time in democracy, a former Spanish prime minister will appear before a judge as an investigated person. It will be José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, about whom magistrate José Luis Calama has indications that he headed a corrupt "network" of influence peddling. He will be the first if we assume that Spanish democracy restarted in 1977, with the first elections after the dictator's death. But during the Second Republic, a nascent democratic system had already been put in place —in 1933 women were able to vote for the first time— and a former prime minister had already been charged: in 1934 the Barcelona Court of Justice —delegated by the Supreme Court— investigated Manuel Azaña as a presumed collaborator in the proclamation of the Catalan State.