What electoral scenarios does Pedro Sánchez have in mind?

This was one of the worst weeks for Pedro Sánchez in the legislature: there was the testimony of his wife, Begoña Gómez, before Judge Peinado, and also the declaration as a defendant of former president José Luis Rodríguez, the intellectual architect of the plurinational majority. However, after everything, at Moncloa they consider that they have survived and are determined to hold on until 2027. Now, from next year, different scenarios open up for calling elections, and he himself admitted it this Friday at the press conference after the European Council. "We will present budgets during 2026 and there will be elections in 2027. There will be no elections together with municipal and regional ones. And I can't say more," he said, when asked by journalists. "Reality is very changeable," he admitted, implying that he could call early elections, as he had previously assured that he would serve the full term. This Friday he limited himself to saying the following: "My ambition is that legislatures, when the right does not govern, also last four years." This translates into three different scenarios:

• Elections during the first quarter of 2027

Sánchez could present expansionary budgets, with a lot of social spending, as a calling card to the electorate. If he did not manage to approve them, as everything indicates would happen, he could go to elections with the narrative of "This is what I want to do from the government, but I don't have the strength to carry it out. Give me your trust." This is a card that Sánchez already played in 2019, after Esquerra blocked some initial accounts for him. Now it is a scenario that some territorial leaders of the PSOE are requesting, who fear that Sánchez's unpopularity in the rest of the State will affect them in their fiefdom, and also the PNB, which did not want all the elections to coincide on the same date in any way.

• Elections after the regional and municipal elections of May 2027

Sánchez could opt to place the general elections after the municipal and regional elections and have the campaign take place in a context of pacts between the PP and Vox. In this scenario, Sánchez could opt to call for the mobilization of the left to avoid a right-wing and far-right government in the State. It is the card he already played in 2023 and it turned out well for him.

• Elections in September 2027

There would be a final scenario that would involve exhausting the legislature until the last day. This would mean calling the elections four years after the elections of July 23, 2023, with the maximum date of September 19, 2027.