Together, change and "the time of the adeos"
MadridFor once, the entire attention of Madrid's political scene isn't focused on the courts for a few days. The primary focus now is on what Junts will do with its seven votes in Congress for the remainder of the legislative term. The decision is expected to be made this Monday, October 27, in Perpignan, where the leadership of the party chaired by Carles Puigdemont will meet. Expectations are high after the party's spokesperson, Míriam Nogueras, dedicated the final part of her speech to the chamber last Wednesday to saying that "perhaps there should be less talk about schedule changes and start talking about the time of change."
A somewhat cryptic message, given that it doesn't say when or how, to which Pedro Sánchez responded a few hours later with another phrase dedicated to the exchange of warnings. The Socialist leader asked Junts to distinguish between a change that "advances" and one that "regresses," if the transformation of the situation is to benefit the PP and Vox. A scene, in short, that reminds us of the images of boxers who enter the ring punching in the air and telling their opponent to prepare for the beating they'll receive. All very much in keeping with the taste of current politics, an endless source of inspiration for the writers of programs like Poland, due to the ease with which one can find a comical version of this type of situation.
However, it would be wise for this time not to remain a mere performance. Together is right to seek prominence, but it should avoid disappointing. You can't spend the entire legislative term saying the wolf is coming and then turn around without biting or putting anything in your mouth. And you can't clench your jaws tightly and result in the loss of all your teeth. In other words, what serves no purpose is spending the entire summer and the start of the new school year in September announcing an autumn of chocolates with amazement, only to end up with an empty plate. The image of this meeting in Perpignan can't remain a souvenir photograph, with some returning to Waterloo and others to Barcelona after a pleasant stay in the capital of Roussillon. The insistent demands were enough for Sánchez to present a motion of confidence in Congress, and the last-minute withdrawal of this initiative without much explanation. We saw this last February, and it doesn't seem like Junts gained much from pressuring the Socialists with this initiative, nor from being unhappy afterwards.
Far from Jordi Pujol
That Junts is not a social democratic party had already seemed clear to us some time ago. The years when Jordi Pujol spoke glowingly of the Swedish model are long gone. He himself later explained that he had no choice but to do so, at a time when no vote should have been renounced, not even those of moderate progressivism. Now, the alliance that allowed Pedro Sánchez's investiture was bound to show cracks sooner or later, because it's unlikely that Socialists and Junts members would see eye to eye on how to resolve the very serious problem of access to housing or what the tax regime applicable to the self-employed should be, for example. The stability of the pact fundamentally depended on the approval and effectiveness of the amnesty law and the progress made in the area of self-government.
The balance in the two aforementioned chapters is very poor. Although the rule on pardoning the leaders of the Process is theoretically in force, the truth is that it has not been applied to the crime of embezzlement, and Puigdemont is still unable to freely set foot on Spanish soil again, because an arrest warrant issued by all the country's security forces remains in place. There are reasons to believe that the Constitutional Court will grant protection to the Junts leader, but it is uncertain what the Supreme Court will do next.
The criminal court that tried the pro-independence leaders could still turn to the European Court of Justice to challenge the application of the amnesty law. It is true that, as Sánchez says, it is not in his hands to enforce the legislator's will on this rule right now. Junts may be convinced that the pace of judicial decisions on the aforementioned law has been compromised, but the government could do little more to ensure the full implementation of the amnesty in the coming months. What Junts must ask itself is what the prognosis would be for the remainder of the same procedure with a government led by the PP and conditioned by Vox, as many polls predict.
This is the meaning of the word "regress," used by Sánchez to refer to the risk posed by the judiciary's warnings about the possibility that "the time for change" has arrived, or, if we want to use a more traditional formula, "the time for goodbyes." You will already know that the origin of this expression is a Scottish folk song. The third verse of the most widely used version in Catalan says: "It is not a goodbye forever / it is a goodbye for an instant; / we will remake the circle / and perhaps it will even be larger." Based on what the polls say, this larger prognosis for the circle now seems doubtful. The Scottish original suggests it will go differently. The lyrics speak of two old friends and say: "We've both banished the current / from noon until dinner / but wide seas have roared between us / since the old days." "Wide seas have roared between us" seems a more accurate description. It should be added that the roars have appeared "among us," but just as much or more "around us."
The Spanish government has sought to react to pressure from Junts by obtaining a joint declaration with the German government on the official status of Catalan in European institutions. Both agree to open a dialogue to achieve this goal. It's interesting, but it may be the beginning of a path with an uncertain end point. We'll see what comes out of Perpignan, but the first step should be to clarify what happens with the budget. If it's not approved, speculation about elections before the summer will grow. The PP, which wants them tomorrow from the start of the term, is suffering considerably in several areas, such as those in Extremadura and Andalusia. From now on, Sánchez will be more tempted to call the polls at the least expected moment.
