The PSOE and Junts take their relationship to the limit

BarcelonaThe last time Jordi Turull explicitly stated "we can't continue like this" was on August 29, 2022, and he did so in relation to his government agreement with Esquerra (Republican Left). Following this, Junts decided to leave the executive and joined the opposition in the Parliament. This week, Turull used the same phrase to refer to the pact with the PSOE: "Either there are disruptive results or we can't continue like this." In an interview with The morning of Catalunya Ràdio, admitted that in the "coming weeks" they will have to make a decision on supporting Pedro Sánchez.

This autumn will mark two years since the PSOE and Junts sealed the investiture agreement in Brussels. During this time, their relationship has been marked by constant back-and-forth, to the point that this week one of the council members' flagship projects, the transfer of immigration powers, fell through due to Podemos's refusal. For now, Carles Puigdemont's party hasn't come out to attack the PSOE—they criticize Ione Belarra's party—but the relationship is at an impasse. Junts believes it hasn't been able to showcase any success from the pact with Sánchez, in a context of falling polls and competition with the Catalan Alliance.

"They have this fall to do something," say Junts sources about the Socialists, and assume they will withdraw support if things don't change. The PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) doesn't quite believe the threat, and sources from the Moncloa (Ministry of Justice) comment that they see "no differences" in the position of Carles Puigdemont's party compared to the first day the legislature began. However, they do admit uncertainty regarding the direction Junts will take when the amnesty can actually be applied to the former Catalan president.reports Ot Serra.

Pending agreements

The Brussels agreement did not contain specific issues, but rather established a method of negotiation with an international mediator. Within this framework, the idea was that both parties could present solutions to "resolve the conflict" between Catalonia and the rest of the State. The content to be negotiated revolved around two major areas: "overcoming the deficits and limitations of self-government" and the "national recognition" of Catalonia. On this point, the agreement explicitly stated that Junts would advocate for a self-determination referendum and new financing that would allow for the "transfer of 100% of taxes paid in Catalonia" to the Generalitat. It also mentioned amnesty, the "direct" participation of Catalonia in European Union institutions, and legal changes to combat the lawfare if it was concluded that there had been any in the commissions of inquiry underway in Congress (such as the one on Operation Catalunya and the 17-A referendum).

Of this, the amnesty law has been approved, there have been attempts to make Catalan an official language in the EU, and a transfer of immigration powers has been agreed upon, which has failed in Congress. All three have been derailed by third parties: the Supreme Court opposes applying the law to Puigdemont, several European countries such as Germany oppose the official status of the language, and Podemos has rejected the delegation of immigration.

However, over the past two years, Junts has also reached more concrete agreements with the PSOE: some are pending and others have been partially fulfilled. They agreed on the "immediate publication of official data to calculate the fiscal balances"; the elimination of Article 43 bis of the Civil Procedure Act because they believed it "threatened" the application of the amnesty; setting the VAT on olive oil at 0%; or the "reform of the Capital Companies Act to reverse the PP's 2017 Royal Decree" due to the return of company headquarters to Catalonia.

Of all these, the Civil Procedure Act was reformed, and the VAT on olive oil was 0% for three months last year—it now stands at 4%. The data for calculating the fiscal balances was published by the Spanish government, but the Catalan government, governed by the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), has not yet done so. Executive sources assure that it plans to do so when it presents next year's budget, which has not yet been dated. As for companies, some, such as Banc Sabadell, have returned without needing the legal change agreed upon by Junts (Junts).

What the PSOE has done is withdraw the independence movement as a "terrorist" in the annual reports issued by Europol (although it is still considered "extremist and violent") and the distribution of unaccompanied minors: Junts agreed on a lower figure for Catalonia than the rest of the autonomous regions, and it is gradually being put into practice.

The other issue that remained unresolved was the Sánchez-Puigdemont meeting. On December 14, 2023, Turull advertisement that "they would meet soon" to talk "properly" about the conflict, but today it has not happened yet. "Perhaps it is already too late," Turull said this Friday in the Ideas Cafe of La 2. In relation to this channel, Junts also agreed that it would be broadcast in Catalan in Catalonia - up to 50% by the end of 2025 - but it has not yet been launched: the planned inauguration date of September 11 has been postponed to October 13.

Key date: general policy debate

There is a key date that could contribute to either mending or further worsening the Junts-PSOE relationship: the general policy debate in Parliament. The Junts members are factoring in the role of Prime Minister Salvador Illa and will present resolutions for the PSC to embrace the so-called Brussels agreement with the PSOE. "He has a contradictory narrative with the one we signed," say Junts sources regarding Illa. Since they expressed their discontent to former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero—the Socialists' interlocutor in meetings with the mediator since the fall of Santos Cerdán—they acknowledge that Isla has made two significant gestures. The first is the meeting with the former Prime Minister in exile—although those close to the Socialist Prime Minister deny that it has anything to do with the situation in Madrid—and the statement that "there will be no normality in Catalonia if Puigdemont cannot return."

What will the PSC do in this context? So far, the Socialists have expressed their support for the pact that Junts made with the PSOE, but it remains to be seen what exactly Junts will present. If the PSC votes against it, the party members intend to hold Isla also responsible for their hypothetical break with the Spanish government.

How to break away

In their recent meetings with Zapatero, Junts has already conveyed that the threat of a split is real. In fact, they rejected important proposals such as the reduction of working hours and the anti-corruption agency. The definitive split would consist of going into opposition, since they rule out a vote of no confidence with the PP and Vox.

Such a decision, Junts sources admit, carries its risks—what would they do if the Spanish government introduces a social measure or one related to Catalonia?—but they assure us they are willing to pay the "cost." What Junts does not want is for the day Pedro Sánchez puts an end to his term, they will be left with their purse almost empty without having made any gesture beforehand, considering that in recent years the main criticism of ERC was its support for the PSOE "in return for nothing."