The PSC would win the elections with ERC ahead of Junts, according to the CEO

BarcelonaAll polls agree that the PSC will win the next Catalan elections, but the one presented this Friday by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) is particularly encouraging for the socialists, who would broadly surpass their opponents with a range of between 40 and 47 deputies, growing significantly from the 33 they obtained in 2021. The CEO's poll is also a counter-current poll because it places ERC (31-37) in second position, ahead of Junts (28-34), which would place Pere Aragonès in the fight with Carles Puigdemont to become the candidate for investiture from the pro-independence flank. The director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, has spoken of a "technical tie" between the two parties.

Independence, in fact, is in a position to reach an absolute majority, but it is not guaranteed. The CUP, with a range of between 4 and 8 deputies, would be key to achieving it, but it may not be enough. Aliança Catalana (0-2) also aims to enter the Catalan chamber. According to Muñoz, the campaign will be especially important for ERC, which has the most options to grow but also to fall, as there is a high percentage of voters who hesitate between voting or not for the republicans. 21% of Catalans hesitate between them and the PSC, 20% with Junts, 12% with the CUP, and 10% with the commons.

The director of the CEO has explained that the survey detects a higher degree of mobilization of non-sovereignist voters than in other Catalan elections, so the forecasts regarding the participation of sovereignist voters have been balanced. Bad news for independence, as it means that its voters are, at this time, less mobilized. In any case, there are 39% undecided two weeks before the elections who could end up tipping the scales.

The PP (8-12) seems destined to come in fourth, as it would prevail over Vox (5-9) in the search for right-wing Spanish voters and also over Cs, which would be left out of Parliament. Finally, the commons would not manage to capitalize on their rejection of the budgets and macro-projects and would fall from the current 8 deputies to a range of between 3 and 6.

The survey, conducted by telephone between April 11 and 22, collects the opinion of 1,500 Catalans with the right to vote, and the margin of error is 2.53% for all of Catalonia. It does not, therefore, collect the impact that Pedro Sánchez's announcement may have had, who has stepped away from public life for a few days to decide whether or not to continue as president of the Spanish government and will announce his decision on Monday.