The PP falls short in Andalusia and remains at the gates of an absolute majority

MadridNight of infarction in Andalusia, bittersweet outcome for the PP and a blow for the PSOE. Juanma Moreno Bonilla and Alberto Núñez Feijóo were very happy seeing that the polls predicted that the popular party could repeat the absolute majority they achieved four years ago, but the ballot boxes have issued another verdict: the PP has lost five deputies compared to 2022, has fallen two seats short of an absolute majority, and will once again need Vox's approval to govern. Seven months ago, the PP inaugurated the regional electoral cycle that now comes to an end with the unwavering goal of freeing itself from Vox, but it has ended up being even more of a hostage to the far-right. To the point that even the most moderate "baron" of the popular party – who had a free hand – now finds himself forced to negotiate with Santiago Abascal if he does not want to repeat the elections. In parallel, on Ferraz street it has been an even more painful night: the PSOE has achieved its worst result in history and is nineteen percentage points behind the popular party. The only relief that gives some oxygen to the socialists is that the future negotiation between the PP and Vox will once again highlight the discomforts and contradictions of the popular party.

After a campaign urging to achieve a "majority of stability" that would avoid the ordeal experienced by María Guardiola in Extremadura and Jorge Azcón in Aragón – in Castilla y León the negotiation is still open – Juanma Moreno Bonilla will have to enter into a negotiation in which Vox will once again place "national priority" as the central axis. This was highlighted by the leader of the far-right in Andalusia: "Let them listen to the Andalusians, who have made it clear that they want national priority," said Manuel Gavira. A statement that was accompanied by shouts of "national priority." "Where is the majority? Where is the majority?" they chanted before appearing amid overwhelming euphoria. This new reality places the leader of the Andalusian PP between a rock and a hard place: "We cannot get into trouble, we cannot be dependent on who wants to put spokes in our wheels," he said at the start of the election campaign. And now he will be forced to come to an understanding with the party from which he has tried to distance himself for fifteen days. Santiago Abascal's party grows slightly, gains one more seat, and reaches fifteen representatives.

PP sources acknowledge that the triumph is not "complete", but they celebrate that the victory has been "clear and undeniable". Juanma Moreno Bonilla has expressed himself in the same terms: "The D'Hondt law sometimes favors us and sometimes harms us. We have not achieved honors, which is what we aspired to, but we have achieved an excellent", he stated from Seville. In a speech without references to Vox – with whom he is forced to deal – he has called for "maintaining coexistence and mutual respect" and has committed to "giving his all".

From Génova, they question that the PSOE is celebrating that the PP is now dependent on Vox: "You have to see what they have become. Ferraz celebrates a supposed gain of power for Vox. Did they want to stop Vox? Or for Vox to have influence? The incoherence is total and it ends the only message they clung to until now," they maintain. For his part, Alberto Núñez Feijóo celebrated on X that Pedro Sánchez ends the electoral cycle "devastated". However, the first voice to react publicly has been Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who rushed to lash out at Pedro Sánchez. "This absolute defeat should force him to resign, but he will not do so because his life does not depend on politics, but on the convictions of all his circle and collaborators," she wrote on social media.

The only thing that allows the PSOE to breathe a little is the unexpected setback of the PP. Of course, the socialists have had a resounding electoral defeat. María Jesús Montero, who until two months ago was Pedro Sánchez's right-hand woman in Moncloa and continues to be the number two in the PSOE, has obtained 28 deputies, two less than four years ago. Until 2015, the socialists had won all ten Andalusian elections that had been held. And in the last decade, they have lost the last three electoral contests. Sources close to the Spanish PP leadership presume that in recent times they have turned "great bastions of the left" into "feudos" of the PP and directly hold Pedro Sánchez responsible for this change in trend: "Playing at home and with their pawns, they are always defeated," they emphasize.

In her speech, María Jesús Montero limited herself to admitting that the results "are not good," but she reduced self-criticism to a minimum. She presented the PSOE as "the only real alternative" to the right and said –of course– that the socialists will analyze the causes of the defeat: "We take note of what the Andalusians express to us through the ballot boxes, this is a party that learns."

Andalusian left surpasses Spanish left

The other struggle was to the left of the PSOE. The duel was between Per Andalucía –the coalition of Sumar, Izquierda Unida, and Podemos, led by Antonio Maíllo– and Endavant Andalusia –the Andalusian sovereigntist party, with Teresa Rodríguez as its figurehead–. It was the first time since 2023 that Sumar and Podemos had shared an electoral list, and the experiment has not prospered as much as they would have liked: they have reissued the five deputies from 2022 and have obtained three fewer seats than Endavant Andalusia, which goes from two to eight deputies in the Andalusian Parliament. Its candidate, José Ignacio García, believes that having positioned themselves above Vox in Cádiz and Sevilla demonstrates that it is "possible to overcome" the far-right from "sovereigntism." "We are very aware that, for now, we have not ousted the right, but the foundations have been laid to do so," he added. He has christened Endavant Andalusia as "the most useful tool against the right" and has celebrated that his party "has taken the absolute majority" from the PP.

For its part, the leader of Per Andalusia, Antonio Maíllo, has attributed the PP's defeat to the mobilizations for public healthcare and has been self-critical of the results: "They do not meet our growth expectations nor the objective of ousting the PP," he acknowledged. Nevertheless, he has argued that the right "has regressed" and has emphasized that "the time when the transformative left was retreating is over." The sum of the left-wing parties has achieved 2.3 percentage points more than in 2022, while the right-wing parties have lost two points. In absolute terms, the left-wing parties have cut 80,000 votes. From Catalunya, the spokesperson for ERC in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, who continues to be engaged in his effort to weave and enable a common front of the left for future general elections, believes that the Spanish left is the "problem" and that now is the "moment for sovereigntist lefts."

Vox stagnates

For its part, Vox has re-edited the third position. It is true that the far-right has grown and has consolidated itself, by far, as the third force. In fact, in Almería it has even surpassed the PSOE. Despite this, far from the exponential growth it experienced in Extremadura and Aragón, it is now stabilizing and stagnating again –just like in Castilla y León– and adds only one more deputy. Likewise, just as in the other three regional elections in which it has participated, Se Ha Acabado la Fiesta –the party of the ultra Alvise Pérez– has once again fallen far short of obtaining representation. It also failed to obtain representation in Aragón or Castilla y León.