The political course in the State begins under judicial control

MadridAs is customary, Pedro Sánchez kicks off the new term this Monday with an event aimed at seizing the political initiative. He already did so in 2022, receiving citizens at the Moncloa Palace, and in 2024 before a broad representation of civil society at the Cervantes Institute in Madrid. In 2023, the elections had been held, and Alberto Núñez Feijóo wanted to attempt an investiture that was doomed to fail. After exhausting his vacation in recent days with a private getaway to Andorra, the Spanish president wants to once again take the helm of a legislature conditioned by the action of the courts against the executive branch of the state. On Friday, the week will end with the traditional opening ceremony of the judicial year.

The control of the judiciary over the course of Spanish politics is nothing new—the Gürtel ruling brought down Mariano Rajoy—but never have judicial cases in the investigation phase so contaminated daily life. The siege around Sánchez, with open investigations against his wife, Begoña Gómez; his brother, David Sánchez; and the Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, is unprecedented, although it was the indictment and imprisonment for corruption of the until recently right-hand man of the PSOE leader, Santos Cerdán, that reduced any room for maneuver for the Moncloa government. The main unknown for the new term is whether the Koldo/Ábalos/Cerdán case could spill over beyond the political spectrum.

The PP's hope is that this case will bring down Sánchez sooner or later. If not, if the Spanish president manages to complete his term until 2027, he would pay the price at the polls. Hence, Génova is already doing the math and warning that Feijóo will need a very large majority to be invested. His goal is to obtain more seats than the entire plurinational majority combined so as not to need the affirmative votes of Vox. The Galician leader also plans to hold a solemn ceremony to open the new political year, and this Sunday he will do so in the town of Cerdedo-Cotobade, in Pontevedra, just as he did last year.

This time, however, he will do so with the fire crisis still ongoing. The worst-hit autonomous communities have been Galicia, Castilla y León, and Extremadura, all governed by the PP, and the devastation that has ensued has called into question the management capacity of his party. men territorial. Castilian-Leonese Alfonso Fernández Mañueco was left scalded after his appearance in the regional parliament. This Friday, after the opposition highlighted its erratic behavior with the fires. The PP, just as Carlos Mazón did with the DANA (National Forestry Administration) in the Valencian Community, has dodged the issue and has continued the strategy of blaming the Spanish government for the environmental disaster, even though forest management powers lie with the autonomous communities.

Even with the fires active, the conservative party has used its absolute majority in the Senate to force the appearance of up to four ministers, who They have tried to highlight the inability of the PP presidents to exercise their regional powers.This is especially relevant at the eve of a new electoral cycle that will begin, precisely, in March 2026, with the elections in Castile and León. Then it will be Andalusia's turn, where the fires have been better controlled. The Moncloa government will try to squeeze these files into its books, and in fact, Sánchez will focus this Monday's opening ceremony on climate change. The Spanish government will strive to focus its governing actions and, above all, plans to emphasize housing in the coming months.

The judicial agenda

However, it has already become clear that the judicial agenda is taking up media space and filling the calendar to no avail. The Attorney General and Sánchez's brother are already under indictment, and the investigations continue in the Begoña case, the Cerdán case, and that of Isabel Díaz Ayuso's partner, Alberto González Amador, who has not harmed the president of the Community of Madrid, no matter how hard the PSOE tries. From a Catalan perspective, the trial for the Pujol case will begin on November 10th in the National Court, although the main point of interest will be the judicial developments surrounding the amnesty for the leaders of the Process.

The Constitutional Court will decide this September whether to admit Carles Puigdemont's request to lift the arrest warrant that the Supreme Court maintains against the former president; a hypothetical return would also cause a major shock to Spanish politics. Throughout the fall, the Constitutional Court will also rule on appeals from convicted individuals such as Oriol Junqueras and Jordi Turull, who want to end their disqualifications. Furthermore, the Court is expected to decide in the coming months resolution on Catalan in schools and, towards the end of the year, the partial renewal of the court with the replacement of four judges, including the president, Cándido Conde-Pumpido.

In the strictly political sphere, Sánchez's resilience will also depend on the degree of compliance with the commitments to his partners. He has already promised to present the budget for 2026—before that, he must approve a new spending ceiling and new deficit and debt targets—but Junts and ERC have already put a price on their support for any eventual budget. Primarily, the pro-independence partners are demanding progress on the transfer of powers over immigration and on the unique funding for Catalonia.