The "No to war" revives Sánchez before a tortuous political course

MadridThe speed at which issues are burned within Madrid's M-30 is dizzying, and the capacity of each political space to decide who sets the agenda is key to gaining an advantage over the rival. This is the great battle of the Spanish government, which launches proposals every week to showcase its work in government – such as the declassification of the 23-F documents – against the PP and Vox, who are struggling to put the alleged corruption cases affecting the PSOE at the forefront. But there are events that transcend domestic politics, and positioning oneself well on the board depends on the players' skill. This is what happened last Saturday, when the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran shook the world again. Since then, war has become the main Spanish political issue, with a president, Pedro Sánchez, who has taken up the banner of "No to war" in line with public opinion – at least according to polls.

Sánchez has become this week the nemesis of US President Donald Trump – in the words of the Financial Times– for two reasons: the decision to veto the use of the Rota and Morón military bases for the war and to lead the most forceful criticism within the EU against the attack on Iran. The socialists have a positive assessment of the risky stand against Trump: with Wednesday's institutional declaration, Sánchez has been pushing the rest of the European countries towards a more critical stance towards the United States. The socialist environment highlights the decision of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni not to go to war, considering that she is one of the European leaders with the best relationship with the American administration.

The Moncloa feels strengthened in the Sánchez versus Trump debate, a framework they have been working on for some time with episodes like Venezuela, Greenland, Gaza, and the rejection of increased military spending. They interpret that this will be favorable for them to gain ground on the PP and Vox in the face of the Spanish elections. Their analysis is that the war in Iran will be prolonged and will have a negative impact on citizens, which will demonstrate that Sánchez's position is the right one. "They are hypocrites because it is very easy to be warlike at the expense of others' pockets," Sánchez said this Saturday at a PSOE campaign event in Castilla y León. The Spanish government contrasts the current attitude of the PSOE with that of the PP during the Iraq war in 2003, and Sánchez will present this in Congress after the European Council of March 19 with the EU heads of state.

Socialist leaders were boasting this week about articles in the international press that have presented Sánchez as the benchmark of anti-Trumpism: from the Financial Times to The Economist, through the New York Times and Politico. A presenter on the Turkish television channel Halk TV also thanked the Spanish position – "thank you for being on the right side of history," she said to close the news.

Complexity with Esquerra

The comfort with which Sánchez moves in international politics contrasts with the tortuous path that awaits him internally from now until June. Far from streamlining his relationship with his partners, he finds himself in a deadlock with both Junts and Esquerra, which means he will not have budgets and will not be able to implement a legislative agenda.

The meeting between Sánchez and Oriol Junqueras on the delegation of Personal Income Tax to the Generalitat did not go well, and this has cast doubt on the support of the Republicans for the budgets of the Generalitat and the State. The state accounts, which the Ministry of Finance maintains it will present within the first quarter of 2026 – March 17 could be a first available date – but without expectations of being able to push them through. In the coming days, negotiations will intensify to try to save the Catalan issue. There is time for ERC to withdraw its amendment in its entirety to the Catalan accounts until March 20, but there is no breakthrough in sight: the Republicans want a gesture from the Spanish government that opens the door to collecting Personal Income Tax, but the Ministry of Finance rules this out – even the Council of Fiscal and Financial Policy, which was planned for March, has been postponed, where Esquerra expected immediate progress.

The deadlock with Junts

The situation is even worse with Junts. There is no direct dialogue, and they are awaiting the official status of Catalan in Europe – government sources were optimistic this week –; the transfer of powers over immigration to the Generalitat and the return of Puigdemont through amnesty.

Regarding the transfer, the Spanish government's operation involved agreeing on the regularization of immigrants with Podemos and for the purple party to agree to vote in favor of Junts's law, which they have so far considered "racist." According to sources familiar with the matter, in recent days they have sent a proposal that has not convinced Puigdemont's party, as it touches on the "technical" articles of the transfer of powers. "The question is whether Podemos is in favor or not of Catalonia having these powers," emphasize Junts sources.

As for Puigdemont's return, it is pending the ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union. If the opinion is similar to that of the Advocate General, who fully endorsed the amnesty, everything suggests that the Constitutional Court would favorably resolve his appeal for protection so that he could return. After that, it would be the Supreme Court's turn. What would be the calendar? According to CJEU sources, no ruling is scheduled for March, and the first two weeks of April are judicial holidays. Therefore, at the earliest, the ruling is not expected until at least April 14. The PSOE interprets that a possible return of Puigdemont before the summer could pave the way for the Spanish legislature, although it would put the right-wing on alert.

The Andalusian elections, critical for Ferraz

Added to the problems with the partners is the negative electoral cycle for the PSOE in the autonomous communities. After the poor results in Extremadura and Aragon – where a repeat election on June 28 is not ruled out due to the deadlock between the PP and Vox – comes the appointment in Castilla y León on March 15 and Andalusia in June, where Ferraz's prospects are critical. The latest polls point to a PP victory without reaching an absolute majority and a close race for second place between Minister Montero and Vox. In parallel, Sánchez will also keep an eye on the judicial calendar: on April 7, the trial for the masks involving former minister José Luis Ábalos and Koldo García is scheduled, and on May 28, his brother will be in the dock. The PP will also have to face the trial in the Kitchen case against former Minister of the Interior Jorge Fernández Díaz, which will highlight the dirty war in the police.

Will the PSOE hold out until the end of the legislature in this context? From Moncloa they maintain that yes, but there are leaders who are pushing for the general elections to coincide with the Andalusian ones to try to recover by taking advantage of the confrontation with Trump. Other regional leaders are calling for the general elections to be held before the municipal and regional elections in May 2027 so as not to be affected by a possible defeat. The key lies with Pedro Sánchez, who will not disregard public opinion polls when making his decision.