The government's announcement of millions in rainfall: Do the numbers add up?

BarcelonaThe Catalan government has failed to pass a budget in its first year, but it wants to push through an extra €4 billion through three credit supplements negotiated with ERC and Comuns: the first for €2.168 billion, a second for €1.301 billion, and a third for €469 million. The demands of both parties have been translated into announcements by the government of millions in housing, healthcare, energy, and aid for economic activity to secure their votes and guarantee this injection of public funds. However, the negotiations are not yet complete, and new demands from Comuns and ERC threaten to exceed the available extra €4 billion. Do the government's numbers add up?

The first credit supplement received the green light from the Parliament with the votes of the PSC, ERC, Comuns, and the CUP. However, the injection of 2.168 billion was intended to ensure the updating of civil servants' salaries according to the CPI and to pay outstanding bills from the various departments of the Generalitat. In the words of the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, these were necessary payments to keep the "machinery" of the administration running. Then we must add the next credit supplement, pending ratification by Parliament, of 1,301 euros: the first 960 intended to finish paying the administrative expenses already committed; and the remaining 388, as agreed the Government with ERC, for the aid plan for companies affected by Donald Trump's tariff war –which has a total budget of 1.5 billion– and aid to farmers affected by the Easter hailstorm in the Lleida plain (30 million).

However, when the resources of the second credit supplement already seemed exhausted (at least mathematically), Comuns sat down at the Government table with new requests that the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, signed to secure their votes for this decree, which will be ratified next week in Parliament. Thus, Comuns and the Government have agreed to increase the housing allocations by around 250 million - to reach 850 million this year in this area -, 20 million for Energy, 10 for mental health and 13 for the public dentist, which represents 293 million more than the 1,301 million of the second credit supplement.

Fruit of the mess with the tourist taxThe Comuns have still wrung a new commitment from the government, this one on account of the third credit supplement (469 million). Jéssica Albiach's group has agreed to endorse the postponement of the increase in this tax in exchange for an additional 60 million to purchase housing through preemption and redemption and increase resources from the local cooperation fund. All of this (including the 293 million) adds up to a total of 352 million euros, which would be included in the third credit supplement. However, in this case, the government would only have a hundred million euros left to negotiate with Esquerra.

The Republicans have set three priorities related, above all, to the fulfillment of two investiture agreements with the Socialists: the new financing model and the transfer of the Cercanías (local commuter rail) service. One of the pending issues is continuing to resize the Catalan Tax Agency so that it can collect all taxes, but ERC also wants clear steps to materialize the transfer of Cercanías (local rail) services. Although the promise was to do so in March, the bylaws of the new local rail operator have not yet been made public, and the Republicans are still negotiating the transfer of the infrastructure. In parallel, Oriol Junqueras's party also wants to include the continued free daycare for children from 0 to 3 years old in this third credit supplement. However, they have not specified the figures for each request, reports ERC. Mireia Esteve, But they would hardly be headed up with just over 100 million still uncommitted from the third credit supplement.

How will the Government do it?

The government is urging calm and is already warning that if members request more than the credit supplements, the requests may be addressed by "reprioritizing" the items in the 2023 budget, which was extended to €41.025 billion. This is the word Minister Romero used when, at a press conference on Friday, she was asked how much money she still has available to negotiate with the groups. Sources from Comuns indicate that it is the government's responsibility to allocate the resources and assert that, for their part, they still need to put new requests in education on the table before committing to voting in favor of the third injection of public funds. The government wants to approve it as soon as possible because every day that passes is one day less to be able to mobilize that money. And the risk is reaching the end of the year without having been able to implement them.