The electoral future of Puigdemont and Junqueras

BarcelonaFrom prison, Oriol Junqueras was the head of ERC's list in the Catalan elections of 2017, the general elections of 2019, and also the European elections of that same year. From Esquerra, in fact, they decreed that, as long as repression lasted, Junqueras would be their number 1 in all elections. But this has not been possible for six years: although he is pardoned and out of prison, the president of the Republicans is disqualified until 2031, awaiting whether the amnesty will be applied to him. The party's strategy for 2028 depends on this, in fact.

In Junts the scenario is similar. "The only thing decided is that Carles Puigdemont will be the candidate," explain sources from the leadership, adding, however, that only "if he has all the guarantees." The former president of the Generalitat has been able to continue running in elections, and is currently a deputy in the Parliament, but remains in exile without being able to fully exercise his functions. In fact, he has shown reluctance to lead a candidacy again without being able to cross from Perpignan.

"It is still the judges who decide who can and who cannot do politics in Catalonia," denounce Republican sources consulted by ARA. One of the effects of the amnesty was precisely that the political leaders of 1-O would be reinstated. Josep Rull, president of the Parliament, is the paradigmatic case. Now, with the favorable ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), the end of the tunnel seems closer, but there is still a final path to travel.

Those convicted or investigated for embezzlement continue to suffer the effects of the Supreme Court's marking. For this reason, part of the electoral strategy of Junts and ERC continues with its sights set on the second chamber of the Supreme Court and on two judges in particular, Manuel Marchena and Pablo Llarena.

Persistent leaderships

Puigdemont and Junqueras are the only political leaders of the Procés who remain at the forefront, even though in recent years they have been forced to share leadership. The president of Junts has especially shared it with Jordi Turull, also disqualified by the Supreme Court, and, before that, with Laura Borràs (and with Quim Torra). The ERC one, basically, with Marta Rovira and Pere Aragonès, who ended up asking him to step aside. But they continue to be the two most important electoral draws for the independence movement, now in full competition with Sílvia Orriols' Aliança Catalana.

Both their approval ratings have been falling over the years, especially among their own voters. Four years ago – before the internal war in ERC – Republican voters rated Junqueras around 7.5. Puigdemont's Junts supporters gave him an 8. In the latest CEO barometer, both are closer to 6.

Be that as it may, both still aspire to the presidency of the Generalitat, even though the polls leave them far from that scenario. Without amnesty, the effect of a possible return of Puigdemont fades. In the case of Junqueras – and also Turull – there is an alternative on the table: a second pardon that ends the disqualification. A scenario that ERC assures it is not considering under any circumstances, but that a private citizen has already sent to the table of the council of ministers.