The electoral future of Puigdemont and Junqueras

BarcelonaFrom prison, Oriol Junqueras was the head of ERC's list in the Catalan elections of 2017, the general elections of 2019, and also the European elections of that same year. From Esquerra, in fact, they decreed that, as long as repression lasted, Junqueras would be their number 1 in all elections. But this has not been possible for six years: although he is pardoned and out of prison, the president of the Republicans is disqualified until 2031, awaiting to know if the amnesty applies to him. The party's strategy for 2028 depends on this, in fact.

For Junts, the scenario is similar. "The only thing decided is that Carles Puigdemont will be the candidate," explain sources from the leadership, adding, however, "only if he has all the guarantees." The former president of the Generalitat has been able to continue running in elections, and is currently a deputy in Parliament, but remains in exile without being able to fully exercise his functions. In fact, he has shown reluctance to lead a candidacy again without being able to go beyond Perpignan.

"It is still the judges who decide who can and who cannot do politics in Catalonia," denounce Republican sources consulted by ARA. One of the effects of the amnesty was precisely to have the political leaders of 1-O reinstated. Josep Rull, president of the Parliament, is the paradigmatic case. But those convicted or investigated for embezzlement continue to suffer the effects of the Supreme Court's marking. For this reason, part of Junts' and ERC's electoral strategy continues with a view to the second chamber of the Supreme Court and two judges in particular, Manuel Marchena and Pablo Llarena.

Persistent leaderships

Puigdemont and Junqueras are the only political leaders of the "Procés" who remain at the forefront, although in recent years they have been forced to share leadership. The president of Junts has shared it especially with Jordi Turull, also disqualified by the Supreme Court, and, before that, with Laura Borràs (and with Quim Torra). The ERC leader, basically, with Marta Rovira and Pere Aragonès, who ended up asking him to step aside. But they continue to be the two most important electoral calls for independence, now in full competition with Silvia Orriols' Aliança Catalana.

The ratings of both have been falling over the years, especially among their own voters. Four years ago – before the internal war in ERC – Republican voters rated Junqueras around 7.5. Puigdemont's Junts supporters gave him an 8. In the latest CEO barometer, both are closer to 6.

Be that as it may, both still aspire to the presidency of the Generalitat, even though the polls leave them far from that scenario. Without an amnesty, the effect of a possible return of Puigdemont fades. In the case of Junqueras – and also that of Turull – there is an alternative on the table: a second pardon that ends the disqualification. A scenario that ERC assures is not being considered under any circumstances, but which a private citizen has already sent to the table of the Council of Ministers.