BarcelonaWhen Jordi Pujol created CDC in 1974, he was not only founding a party, but also articulating an entire social sector, caricatured by his adversaries as the shopkeeper, but which encompassed everyone from the middle and artisan classes to small business owners and the self-employed, as well as farmers and skilled workers. Pujol also endowed Convergència, and by extension CiU, with a political identity that pivoted on two key points: an unshakeable commitment to Catalonia, on the one hand, and a certain ideological flexibility and preference for pacts, on the other. This space evolved from a pragmatic nationalism, in favor of the peix al cove (fish in the basket), to independentism with Artur Mas and Carles Puigdemont. But it has remained, in its main coordinates, grouped around Junts. This political space is now in danger with the emergence of Aliança Catalana, which represents, from the far right, an amendment in its entirety to the Pujolista DNA.
Aliança no longer believes in pactism, nor in ideological flexibility, nor in the principle of "Catalonia, one people". Sílvia Orriols, driven by the rejection of immigration and by the existential anguish this causes many Catalan speakers (and now also Spanish speakers who are former voters of Vox and the PP), not only aspires to bury the convergent heritage, but also to dynamite the bridges that, even at the height of the Procés, were never completely broken between the formations of Catalanist and anti-Franco tradition, and which made unthinkable milestones in Spain possible, such as the approval of an education law with the support of CiU, PSC, ERC and ICV in 2009.
With the post-convergence space devastated and the consensus of Catalanism questioned, how does the Catalan political map look? Well, paradoxically, the advance of the Spanish and Catalan far-right makes a conservative government in Catalonia unviable due to cross-vetoes. The weakness of Junts also makes the social-convergence, always longed for by business sectors, impossible, so that the only operative majority left is the left-wing one, either with the tripartito or by also including the CUP. The paradox, therefore, is served: the more Alianza and Vox, the more left-wing tripartito and, by extension, the more Salvador Illa.
More far-right and more left-wing
And the ARA poll also provides another interesting clue. The radicalization of the conservative space does not lead to an increase in the right-wing space, but the opposite. The most innovative phenomenon detected by the poll is a transfer of votes from Junts to ERC, especially in the Girona regions. Is it possible that ERC is receiving centrist votes, even with convergent DNA, from voters who are wary of Junts's rightward shift? It's a good question. A phenomenon that could be parallel to a certain Rufián effect in the metropolitan area. Another paradox.
Immigration expert Sergi Pardos-Prado warned more than two years ago in an interview that Núria Orriols Guiu conducted with him in ARA about what could happen to Junts if it tried to discursively approach Aliança: "If Junts wants to make a move not to lose this 20-30% [of the electorate], it risks losing on the other side to ERC." Junts, however, did make this move when it agreed with the PSOE on the transfer of powers in immigration. And now it seems to be losing voters in both directions.
The poll, in any case, is a wake-up call that should force Junts to rethink its entire strategy, given that renouncing the convergent DNA (embodied today by the President of the Parliament, Josep Rull) is not working for them. There are two years left until the elections, and both this space and its leader, Carles Puigdemont, have given ample proof of knowing how to overcome the most hostile environments. But now the threat is not only electoral but also existential. What is at stake is not only the survival of a party, a leader, or some initials, but a way of understanding the country and politics. A formula that once seemed unbeatable and today cannot quite find its place.
