The dance of figures in regional funding: how much would each Catalan earn?

BarcelonaOne of the great mysteries kept under lock and key by the Ministry of Finance is that of the adjusted population. It's the key tool for determining each autonomous community's share of funding, but calculating it becomes a real puzzle. People are assigned different values depending on their age, whether they live in a town or a city, whether they are unemployed, or whether they live on an island—among other factors. Some autonomous communities benefit more from the adjusted population, such as Extremadura, La Rioja, and Cantabria, while others... They would do much better if they used the actual population....like Catalonia. That's why every time a proposed funding model is presented, a flurry of figures ensues, depending on what's being compared. Below, we review the main figures before Wednesday's meeting between regional finance ministers and the Minister of Finance.

For now, the ministry He has only given one piece of data for each autonomous community.The millions of euros they would receive thanks to the new model. That is, the increase in resources compared to the current situation. In the case of Catalonia, it is estimated that the Generalitat (Catalan government) would receive an additional 4.686 billion euros in 2027. How much money would this represent for each Catalan? There are two basic formulas for calculating it. The first takes into account the adjusted population, which is the one always used by the Ministry of Finance and, in fact, the one that ultimately allocates the resources. Using this calculation method, the almost 4.7 billion euros represent 627 euros for each Catalan, according to data obtained by ARA from sources involved in the negotiations. In 2027, Catalonia would receive 5,200 euros per adjusted inhabitant if the new model were approved. And how much would it receive in 2027 if it were not approved and the current model were maintained? The sources consulted by ARA put the figure at 4,573 euros per adjusted inhabitant.

The second formula is simpler because it doesn't require adjusting the population. Catalonia has 8.15 million inhabitants, according to the latest data published by Idescat. If we divide the €4.686 billion that the Generalitat would receive in excess by the 8.15 million Catalans, the result is €575 per inhabitant. Although the State only publishes the first formula, the Catalan Government has been publishing both for years. Why? If only the actual population is taken into account, the figures per inhabitant that the Generalitat receives are lower, as is its relative position when compared to the other autonomous communities. Therefore, it is even easier to visually represent Catalonia's underfunding.

Where does the €1,792 per inhabitant come from?

There is yet another way to account for the growth in resources under the new model. Last Friday, at a press conference between journalists and members of the Catalan Government and the ERC party, the figure of €1,792 per inhabitant was mentioned. This was reported by AHORA and other media outlets. What explains this figure? It reflects the increase in resources that the Generalitat (Catalan Government) would receive under the new funding model compared to what it received in 2023, the last year for which complete data is available. In 2023, the resources received were €3,408 per inhabitant (adjusted for inflation). Given that, under the new model, €5,200 would be received in 2027, the difference is the €1,792 that was highlighted.

What are the problems with that calculation? There are basically two. The first is that it compares data over a four-year period, instead of projecting the current model to determine how many resources it would contribute in 2027. If the new model were not approved, in 2027 Catalonia would receive €4,573 per adjusted inhabitant, not €3,408 as in 2023. It would receive €5,200 per adjusted inhabitant. The second problem is that the new model changes the method for allocating resources: the weightings for determining the adjusted population are modified according to the proposal agreed upon between ERC and the Spanish government. For example, the population between 18 and 24 years old is given more weight to better represent young people who move between autonomous communities to study at university.