Has the far-right wave reached its peak?
BarcelonaThe big news from the elections in Castile and León is that, for the first time in a long time, the expectations predicting a surge for Vox have not materialized. Polls forecasting a drop for the People's Party (PP) and a Vox surge to 19 seats and over 20% of the vote have instead led to a scenario that reinforces the two-party system, with both the PP and the Socialists gaining more seats (+2) than Vox (+1). Therefore, it is legitimate to ask whether the far-right wave is reaching its peak, especially considering that the campaign coincided with Donald Trump's escalating involvement in the Iran-Contra affair. However, two points need to be clarified. Vox's rise hasn't been as significant because it was already starting from a strong position in 2022, when it obtained 17.6% of the vote and 13 seats. The electoral system, especially in a territory with many constituencies, benefits the two major parties and disadvantages third parties, as has been the case. The second point is that, while the far right is not growing as much, the hegemony of the right is consolidating.
Conservative Hegemony
In the Extremadura elections of December 2025, the PP and Vox together garnered 60% of the vote (in 2023 they didn't even reach 47%), a figure that paints a very clear picture of conservative hegemony and which Alberto Núñez Feijóo cites in some of his speeches as proof that Sánchez's policies are over. In the Aragon elections, the combined total reached 56% (adding Alvise and the PAR), down from 50%. And now in Castile and León, the conservative wave has also reached 55.5%, two points higher than in 2022, when Ciudadanos was still in power. So, it can also be argued that the conservative wave is losing strength.
Likewise, the big news in Castile and León is that Mañueco's PP has grown more than Vox, which is splendid news for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who sees one of his barons Moderates emerged strengthened at the polls. However, their dependence on Vox remains unchanged. In this context, the Andalusian elections are seen as the true test for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. If Juanma Moreno Bonilla loses his absolute majority and has to form a coalition with Vox, Feijóo will enter the general election with (even more) political baggage.
In the coming days, we will see how the People's Party (PP) yields to Vox's demands, and the far right will consider whether to re-enter government or prefer the comfort of external support. The functioning of these governments will be interpreted as a prelude to what is to come at the Moncloa Palace (the Prime Minister's residence). The outcome of the final battle, scheduled for 2027, will depend on the damage inflicted on the left and how the left organizes itself electorally.
