The Catalonia of 10 million fractures the left

BarcelonaCatalonia is heading towards 10 million inhabitants by 2050, an increase of two million in the next 25 years, according to demographic projections. However, these forecasts have not taken into account the speed at which the current population of 8 million has been reached. Seven years ahead of schedule, this milestone was achieved in 2023, mainly due to the increase in the foreign population. It is precisely this argument that the far right uses to justify its xenophobic discourse on immigration policies: if the bulk of new immigrants arrive without resources, social spending to integrate them skyrockets. This issue has been straining relations within Junts for some time, and the party has hardened its stance to stem the flow of votes to Sílvia Orriols's party. In fact, Junts members openly oppose Catalonia reaching 10 million if the current reception conditions continue as they have been. "Neither the Catalonia of 10 million, nor the Catalonia of hatred," declared the mayor of Vic, Albert Castells, this week. It is also this framework that is causing discomfort to the left, which until now had relegated the debate to the background.

"A Catalonia of ten million inhabitants, at this moment, is completely impossible because it cannot guarantee adequate living conditions in terms of housing, public transport, water, or energy supply," said Oriol Junqueras last Sunday in La Vanguardia, In a similar vein to the members of the Catalan Parliament. This is not the first time the leader of Esquerra Republicana (ERC) has spoken in these terms, which differ from those defended until recently by Pere Aragonès's government. In fact, until now, former councilor Tània Verge has been one of the voices within ERC to comment on immigration, although she has focused more on guaranteeing the rights and opportunities of everyone who comes to Catalonia without mentioning setting limits. Republican sources indicate that from now on, Jordi Viñas will be primarily responsible for immigration issues in the Catalan Parliament. The former mayor of Salt, Viñas recently left his post in one of the municipalities with the highest immigration rates in Catalonia: around 40% of its 30,000 inhabitants are of foreign origin. The Republican leadership believes the focus should be on improving current public services—with new funding for Catalonia—and the quality of jobs, because they believe the country is not yet equipped to absorb its current population of over 8 million. ERC is probably the most active party on the left.

"We must break the idea that population growth is progress: it isn't if it isn't accompanied by greater per capita wealth," points out ERC's Deputy Secretary General for Strategy, Joan Plana, who adds: "The determining factor in whether a society is functioning well is its average income." Plana maintains that the problem isn't the growth of immigration flows, but rather the country's economic model. In this regard, he attributes the increase in the foreign population in recent years to a rise in demand for low-skilled jobs, a model he believes must be reversed. "Growth must be more gradual to meet the challenges generated by this population increase and avoid precarious situations," he adds. The Republican leadership acknowledges that, until now, the left has not addressed the migration debate, giving the far right ammunition to appropriate a xenophobic discourse that calls for closing borders and tightening entry requirements. Critics within the party are wary of the change in discourse under Junqueras' leadership. Firstly, because they believe that questioning Catalonia's capacity to accommodate 10 million inhabitants is tantamount to adopting the far right's mindset. In fact, they reject the idea that the left has shied away from the migration debate in recent years. "Isn't talking about reception centers or work permits the same as talking about immigration?" a source points out. They admit that a rapid population increase puts a strain on the welfare state, but emphasize that there is no study that shows this translates into impoverishment of the population.

The PSC's discourse, on the other hand, seeks to directly confront the far right and points out that what Catalonia must do is adapt to demographic forecasts. "You can't look the other way, you have to prepare the country. We have 25 years to do it," argues the spokesperson for the Socialists in the Catalan Parliament. In this sense, the PSC defends the increase in the newly arrived population as an "opportunity," and Díaz emphasizes that the economic growth of Catalonia and Spain is also due to these people. The party is not without internal tensions either. At the metropolitan municipal level, there are Socialist voices that warn that it cannot be ignored that the current welfare state model also has its "limits," related to population growth. "We understand that concern, which is focused on the provision of services," admits Díaz.

The far-right mindset

For the Commons, ERC is wrong to focus on whether population growth should have limitsFirst, party sources point out that this doesn't depend on the Generalitat (Catalan government) or the Parliament, but rather on variables such as global migration flows or wars. "What the government should be doing is planning," they maintain, and also point out that, while it is necessary for Catalonia to have more resources with better funding, it is no less urgent that the wealth generated by workers (migrant or not) be distributed more equitably. In this regard, the Comuns (Commons) warn that the resources to finance better public services, scaled to the population that Catalonia will reach in the coming years, must also come from taxes on large corporations. "It is a mistake to fuel the far-right's agenda. We must assert that we are one people and that a Catalan is someone who lives and works in Catalonia," they emphasize.

Within the CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy), a Pandora's box was opened this summer when the Girona regional branch clearly positioned itself in favor of degrowth. "The PSC and Junts' obsession with pigs and tourists is leading us to a Catalonia of 10 million," denounced Guillem Surroca, the young mayor of Cervià de Ter, in a video, urging that quality be prioritized over quantity in job creation. His words were met with outrage within the organization, as they felt he was adopting the far-right mindset.

In this regard, the CUP, at the national level, continues to focus on the need to "strengthen public services and expand the social rights of the working majority" without placing limits on population growth. This increase, they argue, is "a logical consequence of human mobility in a context of global crises, inequalities, climate change, wars, and natural disasters."