Sánchez, Junts and the carrot game
MadridIt will be a year on that day. That's what is often said when, for example, something has happened that could have significant consequences but that, in the end, seems as though it can be overcome. It has now been a year since the constitutive session of Parliament and the investiture of Salvador Illa as president of the Generalitat (Catalan government). During these days, the appearance—and disappearance—of the Junts leader, Carles Puigdemont, at the Arc de Triomf, also made headlines, and was highly controversial. Puigdemont made a statement and gave a political speech to try to prevent his escape and return to Waterloo. The time that has passed has shown that the building is holding up, that the state legislature remains fraught with tension and uncertainty, but for the moment, there is no imminent threat of collapse.
Rumors about possible new judicial revelations that would be devastating are constant. However, if explosive charges were placed in the foundations of the PSOE headquarters on Ferraz Street in Madrid, they have not yet exploded. On the other hand, a new political era has begun in Catalonia, which, even if one wishes for full normalization, has the disadvantage of the long ordeal of the amnesty law and its full implementation. The president of the Generalitat made this very clear last week in the pages of ARA. Asked if he would like Puigdemont to sit as leader of the opposition in the Parliament, Illa replied: "I would like him to be able to do whatever he considers appropriate." Along the same lines, a year earlier, he had stated from the podium of Parliament that he wanted the amnesty law—that is, the pardon of the leaders of the process—to be implemented "without subterfuge."
A year later, we see, therefore, that politics—including in this word the functioning of institutions as a whole—sometimes moves extraordinarily slowly, especially when it comes to closing situations that may have been traumatic or that may have been experienced as such. We might think it's a matter of fate, that the country is like this, and that, therefore, we must get used to processes that run in concentric circles, and that never seem to reach a clear goal. The mandate initiated by Pedro Sánchez after the 2023 elections closely resembles this description. What more could he wish for than to have a parliamentary majority sufficient to make commitments without the risk of non-compliance or resignations. The situation, however, is that he has never had his hands free enough to safely bring to fruition the agreements reached to make his investiture possible and, later, to provide solidity and agility to the management of his government. The whole issue of the difficulty in accessing housing or immigration policy, for example, has a lot to do with what I'm saying.
This is how they are now at a crucial crossroads. It's not just the issue of the 2026 state budget. Sánchez has said he will present it, and we'll see with what strength and decision-making capacity. But the important thing is to see what strategies the parties that have been his main allies until now will pursue. I want to refer specifically to Junts, and briefly to Podemos, because they seem to be the ones most likely to resist facilitating the government's next steps. The issue is particularly relevant in the case of Junts, and not because its seven deputies are several times more than Podemos's four. The problem with Junts has to do with what we explained at the beginning. Puigdemont's party continues to believe they've received fine words and promises, but little real progress or concessions, and we're at a point where they're no longer motivated enough by being asked to collaborate in making it difficult for the PP and Vox to come to power. I'm not exaggerating when I say that the fall of the former PSOE organizational secretary, Santos Cerdán, has only complicated matters.
The rush of Juntos
Cerdán has been the main interlocutor with Junts, and although Sánchez has already made decisions about his replacement to maintain dialogue with the members of the Junts, these relations are not going well, they are not in a good state. Puigdemont's party attaches crucial importance to the amnesty issue, but they have already sent Sánchez the message that they will expend all necessary effort to achieve this goal. The prevailing feeling among Junts' leadership is that the timing has been overstated. The judges have done it—impeding or delaying the application of the amnesty law in cases where embezzlement is also involved—and the government has done it, proving itself incapable of guaranteeing respect for a law approved by Parliament. This point is delicate, because it seems unrealistic to think that Moncloa holds the key to every door. This doesn't happen even with an absolute majority, much less with such a divided Congress. Think of the confrontational situation in the Prosecutor's Office or the tensions the Constitutional Court has endured for having endorsed the amnesty law. Or also of the power struggles in the Supreme Court, where every politically charged procedure has a price for the judges who issue the corresponding sentence or cast a dissenting vote.
Juntos is aware of these problems, but it wants results. The outcome of the constitutional appeals filed by the leaders of the Process will be, this fall, a new test for the liberals between the PSOE and the separatists. Puigdemont's party has told the Socialists that they will not pursue the amnesty as a carrot and that they should not expect to have them on their side for the remainder of the legislature. Former Prime Minister Zapatero has already collaborated decisively to save the independence movement. in extremis Some moments of crisis in that relationship. And since we've said we'd also refer to Podemos, know that Cerdán had promised to speak with Irene Montero and company to improve the atmosphere between Podemos and Junts, especially regarding the issue of immigration, given that the former accuses the latter of being racist and xenophobic. This episode shows that Junts should recharge its batteries and devote more efforts to the Madrid administration. With Rufián calling for unity on the left and those in Podemos rejoicing in Sumar's modest expectations, and the PP and Vox calling for elections every day, the autumn outlook looks one of inevitable political virulence.
