Salvador Illa's calculation errors
BarcelonaERC invested Salvador Illa and Pedro Sánchez, and it is true that the only way for the Republicans to have any influence at the moment is for both of them to remain at the head of their governments. Esquerra has often been criticized for easily caving in to the demands of the PSC and PSOE, and these criticisms have often been justified. This baggage likely played a role in Illa's decision to force the legislature's hand by putting the Generalitat's budget to a vote – next Friday – without having finalized the agreement with his most important partner.
And this could be the Government's biggest miscalculation, because if there's one thing that unites Esquerra's militants, it's voting against the PSC's proposals. The division arises precisely when they are asked to do the opposite, as happened in the internal consultation for Illa's investiture two years ago – by the way, it's still not known how Oriol Junqueras voted. That's why, even though the Generalitat is urging Junqueras to make a move so that Catalonia has a budget, he is in a much more comfortable position than his interlocutors.
The transfer of IRPF collection has been blocking negotiations for weeks. ERC knows that the PSOE is not willing to address the issue, at least until this year's electoral cycle is over, with the Andalusian elections in June as the culmination. The Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, will be the socialist candidate in those elections and, if she wants any chance of success, she needs to distance herself from the label of 'friend of the Catalans' – a title that the Catalan leaders who have negotiated with her do not believe has ever defined her.
A Coin Toss
At the current deadlock, speculation begins. Will Illa be willing to call elections as Pere Aragonès did when he faced a similar failure? Sources close to the conversations between ERC and PSC in recent weeks explain that the Government has not ruled out this scenario. Again, a miscalculation if the president has seriously considered it. A gesture of democratic hygiene – if there is no majority in the chamber, the citizens are consulted again – would ultimately lead to a coin toss, hoping it lands heads up. If the polls were as bad as they were for ERC a year ago, the party might tremble, but the forecasts have stabilized some time ago. Junqueras, it is true, could not run because he is still disqualified.
The first year of the PSC in the Generalitat was a smooth ride, and Illa was able to present the "recovery of normality" that he advocated with concrete actions. But things have gotten complicated, and in addition to the problems in Parliament, there are protests from doctors, farmers, and teachers who, despite the "historic" agreement presented by the Government a few days ago, are maintaining their strike in a standoff that could highlight a new miscalculation in Plaça Sant Jaume.
The Week's Details
This week marks five years since Laura Borràs was elected President of the Parliament. There has been no official celebration, but she has made mention of it on social media. Borràs is very aware of her parliamentary past, and even though she is now back to teaching at the university, she responds to some student emails signing off as the "XVI President of the Parliament of Catalonia".
Some of the witnesses appearing in the trial of the Pujol family have not been very fruitful, such as Antoni Zorzano, one of the alleged straw men, who could not remember many of the things he was asked. The reason? "The problem is due to my sudden death. I was dead for nine minutes and then I was resurrected. That and the six open-heart surgeries have caused memory gaps.
The perspective and timing when taking a photo are key. A second before or a second after can change the entire message. For example, during a police inspection at Braseria El Molí in Ripoll, the business owners posted a photo on social media of the officers who showed up this week, a local police patrol and a Civil Guard patrol. In contrast, the town hall's social media preferred to post a different one, showing only the local police.