Puigdemont decides on the break with Pedro Sánchez

BarcelonaHe September 5, 2023Carles Puigdemont summoned the entire press to Brussels to lay out his conditions for negotiating Pedro Sánchez's investiture. He did so after promising during his campaign that he would not make him president, but parliamentary arithmetic gave him the key to Spain's governability, and he refused to let it slip away. But he did so with this warning: "If there is an agreement, it must be historic, a historic commitment like the one no Spanish regime or government has been able to make a reality since the fall of Barcelona on September 11, 1714, and the Nueva Planta Decree that abolished the Catalan institutions and constitutions."

Two years later, it is clear that the pact he reached with the PSOE two years ago—the so-called Brussels agreement—has not lived up to his expectations: the amnesty law has been half-heartedly implemented due to opposition from the Supreme Court; Catalan is no longer official in the European Union; There are no immigration powers for the Generalitat, nor is there an economic agreement or the "national recognition" that Junts had requested.

That's why Puigdemont has convened the party's top leadership in Perpignan this Sunday and will meet with the executive on Monday to make a decision on whether to break with the PSOE. All the sources consulted within Junts are leaning toward a break, which will entail ceasing to be part of the investiture bloc. Now, the one who holds the key to the return and all the information on what has happened in the last few hours is former president Carles Puigdemont, who is the one who will set the roadmap for Junts from now on. He is the one who will translate exactly what this means. break (vote No to all votes or freeze meetings in Switzerland) and what Junts is willing and not willing to do from now on. In principle, he will be the one to appear at 5 p.m. from Perpignan, and it remains to be seen how much he raises his voice and whether or not he demands early elections from Pedro Sánchez. All this taking into account that the PSOE has already said it intends to hold out until 2027 even if it doesn't have the support to push through next year's state budget.

Puigdemont will surely also refer to the president, Salvador Illa, whom Junts blames for not having fulfilled, with his policy of "normalization" in Catalonia, the narrative about the resolution of the political conflict that oozes—Junts believe—from the agreement with the PSOE in Brussels. The executive's decision will be ratified with a consultation with the Juntero membership, which could be held immediately.

The latest contacts

Since Junts spokesperson in Congress, Míriam Nogueras, warned Pedro Sánchez that "the time for change" had arrived, the Socialists have moved to try to stem the rupture. This has materialized, in recent days, on three different fronts: Catalonia's position in the European Union, fiscal balances, and the implementation of the amnesty through the appeal for protection that Puigdemont has filed with the Constitutional Court. The first move came on Friday, when Spain and Germany They made a statement to officially declare that they were "opening a dialogue" on the official status of Catalan in the European Union. Germany, where conservative Friedrich Merz governs, is the main opponent of this measure, which would also affect Basque and Galician due to translation costs. However, this declaration was made to prop up a social democratic government like Pedro Sánchez's—despite being allies with the PP, the German conservatives don't want to hear a word. However, as the ARA advanced On Friday, German diplomatic sources stated that Germany's willingness to open a dialogue did not imply any change of opinion regarding the Catalan issue.

The other piece that the PSOE has moved in recent hours has to do with fiscal balances. It agreed with Junts to publish the data, but it didn't do so completely, and, for now, the Generalitat, governed by the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), hasn't calculated them. According to the sources consulted, the meeting regarding the Junts and PSOE emissaries also didn't go well. And, finally, the other flank that the Socialists have activated has to do with the application of the amnesty law. The PSOE assures Puigdemont that the Constitutional Court must decide on his personal situation before spring, but the question remains to be seen what the Supreme Court, which will continue to be responsible for applying the law, will do. In fact, Junts sources regret that the siren calls for return have been heard for months, starting from the moment the amnesty was approved—and the Supreme Court decided not to apply it to the former president—until last spring, when it was also circulated that a window of opportunity was opening to end the exile. And it hasn't happened, they note.

Puigdemont's entourage was asking for an immediate return from exile, which hasn't happened so far: they were demanding that the arrest and imprisonment order in force in the Spanish state be suspended. For this reason, lawyer Gonzalo Boye had requested this within the framework of the appeal for protection of constitutional rights to the Constitutional Court, but so far the court has rejected it. It denied the injunctions—without hearing from the parties—and is not expected to change its mind after hearing from all those involved in the proceedings. The Prosecutor's Office itself ruled last week against lifting the arrest warrant, while the opinion of the State Attorney's Office, which reports directly to the Spanish government, is still pending.

A two-phase break?

Beyond the decision of whether or not to break with the PSOE, Junts will have to determine what its role will be from now on in the Congress of Deputies. "The president is in charge," a member of the Junts leadership assured this Sunday. At this point, different scenarios are opening up. Most of the sources consulted are leaning toward withdrawing support for Pedro Sánchez, abandoning the meetings in Switzerland and placing themselves in the No at each vote, and completely rule out a motion of censure to make Alberto Núñez Feijóo president.

Now, this possible situation has nuances, since some leaders consulted do speak of a kind of two-phase break: going into opposition now and, if nothing contained in the Brussels agreement is fulfilled within a reasonable time, then activating an "instrumental" motion of censure. That is, allying with the PP and Vox to make an independent candidate president—the president of Fomento, Josep Sánchez i Llibre, is mentioned, but he denies offers—so that he can call elections. This would be a kind of two-phase break and in which, in between, the PSOE would have a lot to say, since in reality it would be a way of buying time for the issue of Catalan and the amnesty, but at the same time maintaining pressure on the Spanish government with the threat of ousting it with a motion.

Be that as it may, this Sunday the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, who was holding a party event in Castilla y León, avoided commenting on Junts and preferred to give Feijóo the green light: "Let's see who's next," referring to the three PP leaders – Mariano Rajoy, Pajo Casado, and Fei, who was censured in 2018. The PP party did speak about Puigdemont. The deputy secretary for regional policy, Elías Bendodo, called on the Junts members to "really stand up and stop propping up a corrupt government." Puigdemont will speak again this Monday.