Puigdemont and the prosecutor are hanging by a thread.
MadridWe are approaching Christmas with a host of unknowns and one certainty: the legislature will not end, no matter how much the People's Party (PP) insists otherwise. Pedro Sánchez has stated twice in recent days that the referendum will be held in 2027, and it has become quite clear that he is not overly concerned about the lack of parliamentary support. In short, he does not consider it an insurmountable obstacle. The opposition coalition Juntos por el Cambio (Junts per Catalunya) has also made it clear that they are not part of the coalition, that the collaboration, which had been ongoing despite its ups and downs since the 2023 investiture debate, has come to an end. However, the Junts per Catalunya members have also saved the government from some setbacks in Congress. It is well known that ruptures can have degrees. To complete the picture of these warnings, the group's spokesperson, Miriam Nogueras, called Sánchez "cynical and hypocritical" in the last marathon debate held in Congress, due to his failure to honor agreements and promises.
Sánchez's response was what a reader of any book dedicated to Stoic theory and practice would have given. The Socialist leader, and the PSOE leadership in general, keep saying every time they're given a piece of their mind that they will continue to extend an open hand, not to beg for charity, but because there's nothing like a constant willingness to engage in dialogue to be happy in this life. But let no one be mistaken. Today's tranquility could be tomorrow's shock. Podemos isn't backing down either. And Sumar points to disagreements and its own distinct profile whenever it can. The outlook could seem more complicated than ever, especially if we add to all these factors of potential instability the more voluntary and selfless contributions coming from the police and judicial system.
Regarding this matter, there isn't an event or forum related to justice these days where the only topic of conversation is the recent trial of the Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, and what the Supreme Court's sentence will be. It's a matter of obvious political repercussions, and this explains both the curiosity with which everyone is asking questions and the tactics of dissimulation and pretense employed by most during these kinds of conversations. "What do you think the court will do?" one asks. "Will there be a conviction or an acquittal?" says another. "Surely you know something," a third person speculates. The point is that everyone wants to know, but everyone is keeping their cards close to their chest, not because they have any, but because no one wants to take a stand, at the risk of word getting out that they've taken a side, and in what direction.
The judges of the criminal court who have been part of the panel for this hearing avoid appearing in public, and if they do, they are clad in invisible, fireproof robes that repel unwanted approaches as if they were flames. If the initial screening process, involving the aforementioned general questions, is successfully completed, the second level of intrigue centers on a well-known figure: Manuel Marchena. Since December 2024, Marchena no longer presides over the criminal division, nor is he the presiding judge in the case concerning the Attorney General, as he was in the October 1st case. For these reasons, many within the judiciary and political circles are wondering how these changes might influence the outcome of the trial against the head of the Public Prosecutor's Office. The prevailing theory suggests that three judges are determined to acquit García Ortiz, while another three are inclined to convict him. The seventh and final vote would be that of a judge who remains undecided. In any case, the Supreme Court will attempt a negotiated verdict, without dissenting votes. The role of the new president of the criminal division, Andrés Martínez Arrieta, will be crucial in achieving this. So too will that of Judge Antonio del Moral. He is a conservative, deeply religious, and technically astute judge. The Attorney General is hanging by a thread.
The Socialists believe they will win a major political battle if the Attorney General is acquitted. In fact, García Ortiz hasn't resigned because both he and the government felt that if he resigned before the trial, they would have lost the battle, even if he were later acquitted. This resistance may now be rewarded. We will know relatively soon. The court wants to finish its deliberations and issue its ruling before the Christmas holidays. The first meeting to discuss the case will be next Monday. If he is acquitted, the People's Party (PP) will be seen as the loser in this battle. In any case, the PP has staked too much on these legal gambles. The Madrid Provincial Court has just overruled Judge Juan Carlos Peinado again, who is investigating the alleged business activities of Begoña Gómez, Pedro Sánchez's wife.
The dream of breaking away from Vox
In that case, Peinado wanted to reopen the investigation into the Air Europa bailout. The judges of the Madrid Provincial Court told him that the ruling in which he ordered it, which was appealed, "lacks the necessary justification." Aznar's now-famous phrase – "whoever can, let them" – doesn't always guarantee success. Every time Feijóo declares Sánchez politically dead by relying on legal issues, he runs a risk parallel to that of the Socialist leader. It's clear that the People's Party (PP) isn't exactly celebrating either. Carlos Mazón's resignation is taking a slow to sink in. The Andalusian PP congress re-elected Juanma Moreno, as expected, but the serious crisis surrounding the vetting process is far from over. And we'll have to see how the elections in Extremadura go. The president of that region, María Guardiola, is taking another gamble by calling early elections. Her dream is to finally break free from Vox.
Meanwhile, there are only two things that could bring Feijóo joy: the calling of elections or Junts taking the decisive step of supporting a motion of no confidence. Sánchez isn't even considering the first scenario. The second scenario is also unimaginable, because it's in Junts' best interest to hold on. The report by the Advocate General of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) paves the way for Puigdemont's amnesty, and the Constitutional Court has already begun to study the appeal that would allow the pardon to be applied to the crime of embezzlement. However, the Supreme Court would have to implement it, and we'll see if it raises objections. Puigdemont, in fact, is hanging by the same thread as the prosecutor. A curious coincidence.
