Pedro Sánchez, a taxi driver from Madrid and the machinery for resistance: until when?

MadridAn interesting and sometimes risky exercise is to talk about politics with Madrid's taxi drivers. You cannot extrapolate from it or reach conclusions, but it does allow you to gauge opinions outside the information frenzy that forms among journalists and politicians in Congress. This week, a driver – who, unlike other times, had no animosity towards Pedro Sánchez – exemplified the weariness generated by Madrid's polarized and extreme political debate, with the eruption of multiple corruption cases, and confessed that he would not vote. He is angry with the right – among other things, Isabel Díaz Ayuso has given the green light to VTCs in the Community – and disillusioned with the left, admitting that he still doesn't know what to think about José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero: "They all end up disappointing me," also citing Pablo Iglesias.

This anecdote reflects one of the PSOE's main problems right now: the demobilization of its potential voters. Because what the polls detect, above all, is a super-mobilization of right-wing voters and a laissez passer from the left. That is why Pedro Sánchez needs time and has sworn to resist until 2027, when – then yes – it will be time to decide which context is most suitable for holding the general elections.

The reading of the "annus horribilis" week

The first question to ask is what valuation the PSOE makes of the week horribilisWhat is the direction of the PSOE from now on? "They said the apocalypse was coming and the sun has finally come out", assures a congressman in Congress, "what else can they do to us"? Another parliamentarian with stripes commented on the possibility that this could end up uniting the socialist ranks: "The more attacks you have from outside, the more you unite from within". And regarding Zapatero, the directive is clear: "Full support". And "he is innocent "until proven otherwise".

La Moncloa also clings to this week's plenary session, where although Junts allied with the PP to confirm the "blockage" of the legislature, it also voted with the government majority in favor of two decrees - on the granting of tax aid for cultural events and the transfer of pending money to autonomous communities and municipalities -. Furthermore, the executive kept two bills alive, that of cinema (with the Junts) and that of improvements in education, with PP and Vox, as they joined the left to block the total amendments from Junts and the PNB that denounce a lack of competence. The socialist bench ended the plenary session with applause.

What is the PSOE's direction from now on?

Sánchez will appear in Congress on Wednesday to explain the alleged corruption. This week there were multiple speculations: "I don't know what ace up his sleeve he could pull out," confessed a PSOE leader: from not presenting any measures, to making a new list to combat corruption, or there was even a rumor of a government crisis. "It's all speculation," concludes a senior party leader.

In parallel, the Spanish government has started the machinery for the 2027 budgets. On June 29, Vice President Carlos Cuerpo will present the macroeconomic framework, and the Treasury is working to ensure an essential step for budget preparation can take place: the vote in Congress on the stability path, which distributes the spending margin between the general state administration, the autonomies, and the municipalities. This will happen before August, according to sources consulted, and will be the first indicator of the executive's probable failure: Junts has already rejected it several times because it demands more spending margin for the autonomies and its position does not seem likely to change. This will mean it will have to be brought to a vote again, and subsequently, the Spanish government will have to prepare the budget project with the last stability plan sent to Brussels.

In this way, the Spanish government intends for public debate to revolve around accounts that are expected to be expansive during the remainder of 2026 and, furthermore, it wants to emphasize two items: the management of European funds, which end on December 31, and the completion of the amnesty with the eventual return of Carles Puigdemont and that Oriol Junqueras can run in the elections. Socialist sources point out that these are the two "most important" projects of the legislature and that Sánchez will champion them as the legacy of his last term.

At the party level, at the next federal committee on June 27, it is expected to "close ranks." Although the leadership assumes there will be critics who will speak up – Emiliano García-Page is already on the list – they reaffirm that it will be a conclave to start the electoral machinery for regional and municipal elections. For days, the organization secretary, Rebeca Torró, has been visiting the territory, and this Wednesday she held meetings with all the organization secretaries of the federations to start the primaries.

The scenarios for 2027

Once 2027 arrives, the scenarios for calling elections open up. This week the PNB implicitly set a date: that if there is no budget agreement in the chamber, call elections. "I don't want to comment on hypotheses, because indeed the budgets for a potential agreement are now being drawn up," Sánchez said on Friday from Brussels. "If decisions are to be made, then I will make them when these hypotheses occur," he had said on Thursday, not ruling out advancing the elections in the first quarter of next year.

The strategy would involve presenting expansionary budgets, so that Sánchez could present himself in the elections asking for strength to implement his program in the face of the refusal of his partners and the PP to support him. In this way, he would satisfy the PSOE cadres who are asking for the general elections to be held before the municipal and autonomous elections on May 23, as they consider that this way they would not be the ones to bear the animosity towards Sánchez.

The other possibility is that he waits until after May and that the context of the campaign would be the eventual pacts between PP and Vox in the communities and town halls. This is an element of mobilization for the left that La Moncloa has on the table and that in 2023 worked against all odds to maintain the government. "Only he knows," they reiterate from the PSOE. "He will call them when it suits him best," says a source linked to the partners of the multinational majority, adding that the personal variable must also be considered: being president is also a weapon of protection against the judicial cases that affect him and his circle, which is not insignificant.