Pedro Sánchez or Donald Trump and the rumors of an early election
MadridThe Moncloa Palace maintains that Spanish elections will be held in 2027 and that Spanish President Pedro Sánchez intends to serve out his full term. However, both the solemn declaration following Donald Trump's trade war threat and the gridlock in Catalonia due to the lack of a budget following the Treasury's refusal to delegate income tax collection have fueled speculation about a possible snap election in Spain. Beyond establishing himself as an international figurehead for the left and leading the opposition to Trumpism within the European Union, Sánchez's speech this Wednesday could be interpreted internally. He was directly addressing Spaniards with a choice: either me or Trump and everything he represents. Sánchez's speech has energized the Socialist ranks, as it provides a framework for competition with the right. The strategists at Moncloa have once again caught Alberto Núñez Feijóo off guard: Spain has received the support of the main European powers in the face of Trump's trade threats, and Sánchez has revived the "No to war" slogan. which did so much damage to José María Aznar's PP. At a time when there are no other established candidates on the left: with Yolanda Díaz's withdrawal, Sumar still lacks a visible leader, and Gabriel Rufián also lacks a platform to articulate his proposal.
The idea circulating in Madrid—despite official sources within the Spanish government maintaining the 2027 elections—is that of an early election in the context of Sánchez vs. Trump, since this is not just a Spanish issue; globally, various media outlets and personalities are highlighting the Spanish president as the antithesis of Trumpism. This already happened with the announcement of the regularization of half a million migrants and with previous clashes over Greenland and Venezuela. Some also foresee holding the general elections concurrently with the Andalusian elections scheduled for June, where the First Vice President and Sánchez's right-hand woman, María Jesús Montero, faces the worst electoral prospects in the history of the PSOE in this region. For example, the latest Sigma Dos polls for The World and from Gesop for Iberian Press They predicted a PP victory without reaching an absolute majority, and that the PSOE would be vying with Vox for second place. A terrible prospect for Ferraz (the PSOE headquarters), considering that Andalusia—along with Catalonia—has always been its most important stronghold for conquering La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence).
If early elections were held in Spain, Montero could join forces with Sánchez and try to mobilize the left-wing electorate to counter the rise of the right and far right. This would be after the Castile and León elections on March 15, where the Socialist candidate Carlos Martínez is expected to fare better than Pilar Alegría in Aragon and Miguel Ángel Gallardo in Extremadura. "The PSOE doesn't lose elections because its voters change their vote... but because they stay home," reflects a former Socialist leader, illustrating that what the Socialists need is to give their voters a reason to go out and vote.
Public opinion in favor
The polls aren't looking good for Pedro Sánchez, and the surveys are critical of a significant part of his government's actions, mainly his agreements with the Catalan separatists: the amnesty and the new financing model. However, where Pedro Sánchez truly connects with Spanish society is in foreign policy, which, while already a major news story, the Moncloa Palace is working hard to make the main topic of debate in domestic politics as well.
One only has to look at the latest CIS data, before the outbreak of the war in Iran. 76.5% of Spaniards said they had a "bad or very bad" opinion of Trump. And as many as 79.5% believe he is a "danger to world peace." If the context of an election were Sánchez or Trump either War yes or war noMoncloa would have a winning narrative. However, entrusting a national election to international politics would be the riskiest move in Sánchez's playbook of resistance. Because the question would be: will the average Spanish citizen go to vote thinking about Trump or about how much it costs them to make ends meet?