Moreno sneezes and Feijóo catches a cold

BarcelonaSometimes victory tastes like defeat. This is the case for Juanma Moreno Bonilla's PP in Andalusia. From a historical perspective, the result of these elections does nothing more than consolidate conservative hegemony in a territory that had been a stronghold of socialist votes. But politically, for Moreno Bonilla and his Andalusian and moderate path, having to make a deal with Vox is a tragedy because it affects the core of his political discourse. We will have to see how he manages it after having said that the dilemma of these elections was "either an absolute majority or chaos".

The PSOE's result is also nothing to write home about, in fact it is the worst in history, but it avoids total collapse and sees the left-wing bloc revive. Indeed, these are the first elections in a long time in which the left has regained ground compared to the right, at least in terms of seats. Not in votes, but the conservative wave is losing strength. In Extremadura, the PP-Vox-SALF trio obtained 13 points more than in the previous ones (60%). In Aragon, the growth was only six (56%). And in Castilla y León it was reduced to two points (55.5%). Now in Andalusia, the advance has been just over one point (58%). Of course, the 2.5% of Alvise Pérez's votes have been key to taking away seats from the right.

The surprise of Endavant Andalusia

As happened in Aragon, the growth of the left is basically driven by a self-centered force like Adelante Andalucía, which has practically doubled its vote percentage (9.5%) and has left behind the conglomerate of the Spanish left. Of course, if the two forces are added together, they reach almost 16%, not so far from the PSOE (22.8%). There is no doubt, then, that wherever there is a strong identity sentiment and a certain anti-centralism, the PSOE suffers (the exception would be Catalonia).

The state-level interpretation of Moreno's sneeze is that Núñez Feijóo is catching a cold. Why? Because Sánchez can now claim that the left is holding on at the worst moment and sees that his adversary is losing an absolute majority that was key to making the option of a PP government alone credible in the State as well. Furthermore, Moreno Bonilla's strength served to balance the party, and now Isabel Díaz Ayuso remains the only important leader with an absolute majority (the other is the Galician Alfonso Rueda, who doesn't amount to much). Now Sánchez can sit back and calmly watch Santiago Abascal distort Moreno Bonilla's political profile and add another territory, Andalusia, to his policy of confrontation with the far-right. Obviously, the PSOE as an organization has a serious problem in Andalusia, but in Moncloa they can argue that, looking ahead to next year's general election, there is still a game to be played.