Catalan Alliance overtakes Junts and the left retains majority in Catalonia

BarcelonaIt hasn't even been two years since Salvador Illa became president of the Generalitat, and the oasis of tranquility he enjoyed in his first months is beginning to look more and more like a mirage. For a long time now, protests in the streets have been added to the difficulties of governing in minority, with teachers being one of the most demanding groups. The ARA survey, conducted by YouGov, detects some electoral wear and tear for the PSC, but, despite everything, the socialists would consolidate their first position today if the elections were brought forward. There is no forecast of this happening, even though negotiations for the budget with ERC are still open, which adds a point of unpredictability to the calendar. The PSC would obtain between 36 and 42 seats and would see the second party in the Parlament no longer be Junts, the main victim in case of elections, but Esquerra (27-30).

who have in teachers one of the most assertive actors23% of the voters who trusted Junts in 2024 would now go to swell the numbers of Alianza Catalana, which everything indicates could be the leading force in Lleida —neck and neck with the PSC—, and third in both Girona and Tarragona. In Barcelona, it would compete for a podium spot with Vox, the other far-right party, which would also see its position strengthened to the detriment of the PP. With between 14 and 17 deputies, Ignacio Garriga's party would be fourth in Catalonia.

As if these were not enough problems for Junts, the party would suffer a flight not only to the right, but also to the left: ERC would take 12% of the Junts votes from two years ago. Junts is, in fact, the party with the lowest vote retention, as it would only keep 36% of the voters from the last Catalan elections.

Contest for the right

Does Junts have room to counter the Aliança phenomenon? The dynamic is negative, but the party still has everything to define. In fact, it's not even known who leads the opposition in Catalonia (a position usually held by the leader of the main opposition party). In the party, nothing will move significantly until Puigdemont's expected return, which doesn't seem likely to happen before summer. When he returns, will he be the one to lead the opposition to Illa? Will he engage in parliamentary life? Will he formalize his candidacy to run again as the list leader? The Puigdemont effect already turned the polls around in 2024, although it wasn't enough to secure a viable majority to govern.

The poll doesn't detect many undecided voters who sympathize with Junts, although 11% of its former electorate has not yet defined their vote. In the current snapshot, Aliança Catalana also doesn't seem to have much more room to grow. So far, Junts has opted to combat the far-right phenomenon by hardening its discourse on immigration and embracing issues such as tax cuts or the defense of property owners' rights (the poll's fieldwork was done before the votes against the extension of rent controls and against the Catalan investment consortium, and therefore could not reflect their potential effect on the electorate).

In case of elections, Alianza Catalana would skyrocket thanks to the slice of the pie it would take from Junts, but also to the part it would capture from the Spanish far-right. 23% of Vox voters would now opt for Sílvia Orriols, which would consolidate a trend that has been detected for some time: opposition to immigration unites its supporters more than the demand for Catalan independence. Of the voters of the four pro-independence parties, those of Alianza Catalana are, in fact, the ones who feel least Catalan: 51% identify as "only Catalan" or "more Catalan than Spanish," compared to 56% for ERC, 67% for the CUP, and 80% for Junts.

Tripartite yes, but not an independence government

Salvador Illa's strategy is to establish himself, like Pedro Sánchez in Spain, as the bulwark against the far-right. He first did so with Vox, but now he is increasingly focusing the confrontation on Orriols. The socialists are convinced that the threat of Aliança's significant growth could end up making the PSC the useful vote. In any case, the survey detects that ERC is the left-wing party that would grow the most in the event of elections. From its current 20 deputies, it could gain between 7 and 10, and recover a good part of the muscle it lost in 2024. The republicans also do not have a defined candidate —it is Oriol Junqueras, but, until the amnesty is applied to him, he remains disqualified—, they are recovering from a serious internal crisis, and they are experiencing a tug-of-war with their spokesperson in Madrid, Gabriel Rufián.

But the wind seems to be blowing in their favor. In fact, it is precisely Rufián who is the best-rated leader, according to the ARA survey, and even the one who receives the most "Likes" for becoming president of the Generalitat. The politician from Santa Coloma de Gramenet has gone viral throughout Spain, and his style and proposals also appeal to Catalan voters. Among ERC voters, Rufián proves to be more popular than Oriol Junqueras, based on the survey results (the fieldwork coincided with the aftermath of the event in Barcelona between Rufián and Irene Montero).the event in Barcelona between Rufián and Irene Montero).

The slight decrease in the PSC, combined with the rise of ERC and the stability of the Comuns, who would remain around 6 deputies, would make it possible to repeat the same majorities as in the current legislature. In fact, the left-wing tripartite could emerge strengthened: it now has 68 deputies —exactly an absolute majority— and would obtain between 67 and 79 deputies. The PSC and Junts would stop adding up —they could now, but they chose not to—, nor would a hypothetical pro-independence government: ERC, Junts, and the CUP would fall back to around 45 deputies, whereas not so long ago, in 2021, they had added up to 74. The pro-independence majority would probably not add up either by including Aliança Catalana, a party against which republicans, Junts members, and CUP members have established a cordon sanitaire in the Parliament.

For the moment, the Government will remain in the minority and no coalition agreement is expected during the legislature. On average, the assessment by citizens is not very positive. The executive fails with a score of 4.1 and there are 37% of respondents who believe its management is bad or deficient (only 22% consider it good or excellent).