Aragon becomes the new ring for Spanish political parties

MadridThe second battle of the Spanish political parties in this election cycle is underway. In this second round – the first was in Extremadura – the ring for the main national leaders moves to Aragon, a region called to the polls on February 8. Although these are again regional elections, the event is another litmus test for Pedro Sánchez, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, and Santiago Abascal. The survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published this Thursday, the day before the start of the election campaign, predicts a scenario similar to that of Extremadura. The People's Party (PP) would win the elections with a result practically identical to that of 2023 – if it currently holds 28 seats, six short of an absolute majority, it would obtain between 25 and 29 – and would be even more closely tied to Vox, which would confirm its rise by doubling its seats again – going from 7 to between 10 and 13. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) would have no chance of governing.

However, unlike in Extremadura—where the Socialists suffered a historic defeat, losing ten seats and facing the handicap of a candidate facing charges of influence peddling and malfeasance for hiring the Spanish president's brother at the Badajoz Provincial Council—the CIS (Center for Sociological Research) is predicting a different outcome in Aragon. The candidate, former minister Pilar Alegría, could win the same number of seats as two and a half years ago—between 17 and 23, whereas currently she holds only a few at the top of the list. However, it's important to note that the survey was conducted before the Adamuz (Córdoba) train disaster, which has disrupted the political landscape and represents an additional source of strain for Sánchez and the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party). Until just over a month ago, Alegría was one of the most visible figures in the Spanish government, serving as both Minister of Education and spokesperson.

The tragedy has marked the start of the election campaign – all parties except Vox suspended their pre-campaign activities during the three days of official mourning – and the kickoff events, usually held the night before, were delayed until Friday morning. The rail crisis has also led to the absence of national leaders at this initial launch. Feijóo does not plan to attend in the coming days, while Sánchez will make his first appearance this Sunday. Abascal, on the other hand, has been fully engaged for over a week, ruthlessly using the rail disaster as a weapon and repeating the strategy that worked for him in Extremadura: to cover as much ground as possible and be the protagonist, overshadowing the regional candidate, Alejandro Nolasco.

The battle on the right

In Aragon, Vox aims to consolidate its growth in this electoral cycle and confirm what the polls predict, hoping to replicate this success in Castile and León in the March 15 elections and in Andalusia before the summer. The People's Party (PP) sees absolute majorities as increasingly elusive, and its candidate, the current president of the autonomous community, Jorge Azcón, anticipates following in the footsteps of María Guardiola in Extremadura. Azcón, like her, has been forced into early elections by the strategy from the PP headquarters in Madrid (Génova) to try to weaken Sánchez by demonstrating that, faced with a second budget extension—which was also going to happen in Aragon—and unlike the Spanish president's approach, elections must be called. However, the result in Extremadura is yet another deadlock in negotiations with Vox to invest the PP candidate as president.

A fragmented Parliament and a fragmented Left

In the Aragonese Parliament, unlike in other autonomous communities, there is greater parliamentary fragmentation, with eight parties currently represented. According to the CIS (Spanish Center for Sociological Research), only six could remain. It is unclear whether the Aragonese Party (PAR), with one representative, will be able to retain its seats. Podemos is also on thin ice. While Extremadura was an oasis of left-wing unity, with a joint candidacy, in Aragon there are three different lists: IU (United Left) and Sumar will run together, and separately, there will be the ballots of the Aragonese Union (CHA) and Podemos. This situation has been exacerbated by the mutual vetoes between Podemos and Yolanda Díaz's party, and by the fact that in the regional elections, CHA (unlike in the national elections where it ran with Sumar) has always run under its own name. CHA could improve its results to five seats – it currently has three – and IU-Sumar could maintain one seat – with the possibility of reaching three. Teruel Existe would also enter the Aragonese Parliament with one or two representatives – it currently has three.