Andalusia: The next big battle between the PSOE and the PP

MadridWhat was an impregnable stronghold of socialism for more than 40 years is now a territory governed by the People's Party (PP) with a comfortable absolute majority. Unseating Juanma Moreno, the Andalusian president since 2019, who polls predict will be able to remain at the helm of the Andalusian Regional Government without depending on anyone after the 2026 elections, is no easy challenge. However, Pedro Sánchez has decided to put all his effort into challenging a heavyweight in Spanish politics with the aim of doing as much damage as possible to the PP. A few days after formally taking the reins of the Andalusian PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), María Jesús Montero announced: a debt forgiveness which placed Andalusia in first place, with the highest figure of all the autonomous regions under the common regime. A coincidence that has generated suspicion among her political rivals. Montero has the advantage of her public profile and her management as First Vice President and Minister of Finance of the Spanish government, but also the disadvantage of the wear and tear that these responsibilities also entail.

Since then, Montero has been the target of attacks from the PP for supposedly benefiting the pro-independence parties with the pardon agreed upon with the ERC, which they consider a "toll" to keep Sánchez in power. On the other hand, Moreno's refusal to accept the entry measure And the contradictions of the Popular Party gave ammunition to the vice president, who accused the Andalusian government of "preferring to confront without reason than to serve the interests of its community." Montero is experiencing a string of controversies, having previously had a strong clash with Yolanda Díaz over the taxation of the minimum wage, which could end in a parliamentary defeat for the Socialists if the Treasury Minister does not back down and Sumar ends up colliding with the PP in Congress. The Andalusian battle is already seeping into the lower house, as can be seen in the control sessions with a PP seeking to make a killing against her. The one who has his eyes especially focused on Andalusia is the party's general coordinator and former Andalusian minister, Elías Bendodo.

The PP's vision

Within the PP, they are aware that Montero could harm them electorally. Hence, they have redoubled their attacks against her. While the Socialists obtained 890,000 votes in the 2022 regional elections, with 30 seats compared to the PP's 58, in the 2023 Spanish elections, the PSOE obtained more than 1.4 million votes. Thus, although the PP was the leading force on June 23, the PSOE obtained half a million more votes than in the Andalusian elections the previous year, leaving them about 100,000 votes behind the Popular Party, which, in contrast, obtained almost identical support compared to 2022. Montero aims to activate a greater polarization of the vote than in the regional elections.

A PSOE that seeks to activate the fear vote and leans toward the extremes is an unfavorable scenario for popular interests because Moreno champions moderation, Andalusianism, and represents the friendlier wing of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP, according to funds from his own party, which admit funds from his own party; although it is a scenario that the Spanish president has not raised because he maintains he wants to finish his term, which should last until 2027. "She must choose between being Sánchez's independence delegate or dedicating herself to Andalusia," Bendodo recently suggested in a plenary session. One of the Andalusian PP's favorite flanks is the specific funding for Catalonia, a portfolio that should be handled by the Minister of Finance, who counters that it will not be an insult to the Andalusians she aspires to represent. as it has already done with the forgiveness.

Moreno's complications

Montero isn't the only one facing challenges. The PP president also faces some complications arising from his administration. His main headache is healthcare. Moreno has public health users on the warpath with small-scale white tide demonstrations that have been held week after week for over a year to denounce the long waiting lists and the privatization plans of the Andalusian government. Furthermore, several emergency contracts awarded between 2021 and 2023 by the Andalusian Health Service (SAS) are in the courts for alleged embezzlement and malfeasance.

Another complication for the PP leader would be winning without renewing his absolute majority and depending on Vox, with whom he has a tense relationship. The far-right party criticizes him for his centrist nature. In Andalusia, Santiago Abascal's party lacks a strong leadership, instead drawing on the state's dynamics after Macarena Olona's brief stint as a candidate. paratrooper in 2022, which failed and placed the party in irrelevance in the Andalusian Parliament, with 14 seats.

The challenge of unity on the left of the PSOE

"The prevailing framework of fatalistic inertia, that the game was won, has changed; now the feeling is that there's still a game to be played," reflects Toni Valero, general coordinator of the United Left in Andalusia, in a conversation with ARA, in which he maintains that the left's prospects are improving. In that territory, the left of the PSOE is made up of two groups. The most represented is Per Andalucía (5), a coalition led by IU (United Left) and which, unlike the rest of Spain, keeps Podemos and Sumar united under the same umbrella. The Andalusian elections will be the first major test to see if, after the split in Congress, they are capable of running together again. Valero admits it will be "difficult," but hopes they can "isolate Andalusia" from the "tensions," and sees the fact that they are based on a "pre-existing unity" as a "great advantage." The visible face of Por Andalucía in the spring or summer of 2026 will depend on this negotiation. The last group on the left is Endavant Andalucía (2), the split of Teresa Rodríguez to which IU also invites to unite against "the reactionary wave."