Who wins and who loses in the new Trumpian global order
Trumpism has forced the world to reposition itself. As can be read in thereport The world in 2026: ten issues that will shape the international agenda, from CIDOBThe return of Donald Trump to the White House marked the beginning of a new era in the instrumentalization of economic and technological coercion, the intensification of competition for resources, and the need to seek alternative trade relationships in the United States, which has accelerated a global race to diversify the friends and rebuild bridges with allies of convenience.
International relations are being reshaped: from China's efforts to project stability and expand markets to the Trumpian vassalage of the European Union, as well as the new geopolitical spaces consolidating in the Global South.
In 2026 we will see who adapts best in a year that will enshrine the law of the strongest. We are facing a global readjustment that has winners and losers, but not only that. There are also opportunists who, through ideological complicity or uninhibited pragmatism, have found ways to instrumentalize these changes and influence an order that appears chaotic. This is the case of the Gulf countries, with their reinforced diplomatic and technological prominence. At the same time, we see spaces of resistance, such as the global discontent of Generation Z. And actors who feel disoriented in the face of transformations they don't know how to confront and who, like the EU, are trailing behind a world that is increasingly hostile to them.
But the Trumpian order is, above all, a victory for hard power that reinforces the impunity of interventionism. In the midst of the disintegration of multilateralism, the return of spheres of influence is defended by any means necessary, acting against international law, as is happening in Ukraine, Gaza and the West Bank, or with theextrajudicial military attacks against allegednarcollajasin the Caribbean and the Pacific. Trump symbolizes the growing wave of states that place themselves outside the law. Even his efforts peacemakers They are carried out with the express intention of marginalizing and weakening international governance and legality.
The temptation to reduce peace negotiations to a mere exercise in conflicting interests is growing. Trump's peace is built on business deals. It is not about resolving historical grievances, but about applying a commercial mindset that incentivizes a ceasefire with immediate profits. Traditional diplomacy has been replaced byagreements between magnatesAnd with the same vision, Trumpism has translated into a blatant capture of the state, which has lined the pockets of the president's inner circle and those who helped him regain power.
Technological rearmament will also intensify in 2026. Revenue from arms sales has reached its highest level since 1989. The use of drones has also seen significant growth in conflict zones, beyond Ukraine and Gaza: in Haiti, Colombia, the South China Sea, and the military escalation between India and Pakistan. The robotization of remotely controlled violence is transforming warfare, and the emergence of military AI will ultimately determine this change. It is the new instrument in the global race for power.
The value of AI technology companies has skyrocketed in recent months. These gains exemplify both the opportunism and the fears behind this new model. US economic growth is dangerously dependent on investments in AI infrastructure and the outcome of the so-called seven magnificent(Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla). The question is whether this level of euphoria can be maintained and what will happen globally if these investments are halted. For now, it's no coincidence that Elon Musk (founder of Tesla), Larry Page (CEO of Google), Jeff Bezos (founder of Amazon), and Larry Ellison (founder of Oracle) top the list of the world's richest people.
All of this will further increase US pressure on the European Union's digital legislation, which has become aterrain of confrontationThe EU feels increasingly out of place in this new global reality, scorned by its traditional ally and challenged by a Vladimir Putin who is emboldened by Washington. The priorities shaping the European geopolitical agenda (such as defense, the war in Ukraine, and trade agreements) are out of step with people's daily lives, and this discontent is reflected at the ballot box.
But if there is a clear loser in this new reality, it is American democracy. An overwhelming 85% of Americans say thatpolitical violenceIt is increasing in his country. Trump's rapid consolidation of presidential power is leading the UStowards authoritarianismwhich is rapidly eroding the rule of law. The independence of institutions is threatened. In 2026, the 250th anniversary of the independence of the United States will be celebrated, coinciding, paradoxically, with the fear of theinterferencein the midterm elections next November. It will be the first major test for Trumpism. Meanwhile, his global agenda will continue to impose a hierarchy built on the erosion of human rights, the fragmentation of trade relations, and the undermining of multilateral governance.
