The warlightningVladimir Putin's occupation of Ukraine has now dragged on for more than 1,460 days. Four years of fighting have irrevocably changed the European continent and the very nature of war. Nearly two million soldiers killed, wounded, or missing on both sides, and millions of displaced civilians are the direct victims of the largest land war on the European continent since World War II. And yet, Ukraine is entering its fifth year of military occupation, with Russia occupying only 12% more territory than it controlled before February 24, 2022.
The front lines have practically frozen. Battles now only result in advances or retreats of a few hundred meters. Those initial columns of armored vehicles have been replaced by a remotely controlled, robotic violence that has transformed warfare. The battlefield is no longer defined by the trenches of attrition suffered by both armies. For over a year now, the war front has been a gray area, marked by the drone of drones and the use of thermal cameras designed to hunt civilian victims, day or night. Technology has dictated the course of the conflict from the very beginning. That's why the turning point, a few days ago, was Elon Musk's decision to disconnect the Russian military from the Starlink satellites, which provide internet access in Ukraine. With the blackout of Russian communications on the ground, Ukrainian troops have launched a counter-offensive that has allowed them to recapture 260 km² of territory in just two weeks. The war in Ukraine has also become a showcase of how private technology companies are reshaping the relationship between governments and a military power that is increasingly integrating the technology industry into its decision-making processes.
The Ukrainian resistance war has also transformed the concept and perception of security across much of the European continent: from Sweden and Finland abandoning their historical neutrality to Germany's active rearmament and the acceleration of a European defense strategy, including the debate surrounding the issue. The European Union is rethinking a transatlantic security architecture that is faltering due to the geopolitical, economic, and territorial threats posed by Donald Trump. The EU has undergone a transformation in these four years, driven by urgency and a sense of vulnerability. The debate on proliferation has been reopened as Paris and Berlin consider extending the French nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe.
Vladimir Putin's offensive has also brought a future enlargement of the Union back into the spotlight and, in turn, has impacted frozen conflicts on the continent. Brussels has offered a prospect of accession to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, while the occupied regions of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria are undergoing a process of annexation.de factoon Russia's side.
Meanwhile, the war of attrition is testing Russia's resilience. According to Estonian intelligence reports, the Russian military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production seventeenfold since 2021. Russia has not only been increasing its weapons capacity but, in addition, over these four years, has adapted security doctrines and refined combat strategies to circumvent Western sanctions and maintain its war effort.
This is why Moscow can continue to pursue maximalist positions, as seen in the recent peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, held in Geneva on February 17 and 18. There was no progress, and the EU was once again excluded from the discussions on the future of continental security. The dialogue served to highlight the internal divisions within the Ukrainian delegation regarding the prioritization of negotiations and the costs they were willing to bear, and the intransigence of a Russian delegation that arrived in Geneva without any concrete offer, yet convinced that the negotiation process is simply another way to widen the rift. Meanwhile, the White House is seeking a swift ceasefire to pave the way for a restoration of relations with Russia. But Ukraine is resisting. It is resisting on the front lines of the war and against the political pressure that seeks to impose the aggressor's peace.
