It doesn't affect humans. I repeat: it doesn't affect humans. But it has already set off alarm bells, paralyzed exports, and threatens the Spanish livestock sector. Welcome to the latest episode of economic panic: African swine fever (ASF). This week, six dead wild boars were found in the Collserola forests near Barcelona. The cause: an animal virus that has been spreading from Africa for decades and has arrived (no one knows exactly how) in a nature reserve with no pig farms, livestock operations, or transport of animals. Collserola is a green lung, a protected area where hikers and cyclists stroll. No industrial logic justifies ASF's arrival. But it's here.
And here's where the problem begins. The pork sector represents more than 40% of Spanish livestock production. It is the undisputed leader in exports of pork and pork products. Spain sells pork products worth more than €8.8 billion. Along with tourism, it is one of the key sectors of our trade balance. With six wild boars killed, the reaction has been immediate: a third of export certificates blocked, countries canceling imports, and Spain's reputation tarnished in the international market. Losses could approach €2.5 billion if the shutdown continues.
This extreme reaction stems from the fact that African swine fever is lethal to animals. There is no vaccine, no preventative measures, and its capacity for transmission is enormous. It only takes one farm to have thousands of animals culled. Yet, it's difficult to understand how a localized anomaly (and until now, contained within wild animals) can end up causing an economic earthquake of this magnitude. In the post-COVID era, any health outbreak (even an animal one) triggers all the highest-risk protocols: lockdown, closure, cancellation.
Spain already experienced an outbreak of African swine fever in 1994. It was eradicated. But now the virus has returned seemingly out of nowhere. Who brought it? How did it get here? The authorities have yet to provide answers. Meanwhile, the erosion of trust is already underway. Because in the global economy, what matters is not the truth, but perception. And the perception is that Spanish pork is now a risk. We'll have to do as we did then: isolate the affected area, control movement, cull as needed, and pray that no more cases appear. And, when it's all over, recover lost prestige, reopen markets, and compensate the sector. This could take anywhere from two months to a year, depending on whether more animals die.
This is yet another lesson in how globalization can turn a small outbreak into an economic catastrophe. This time it wasn't a human virus. It was swine. But the script is the same. That's why I call it the swine COVID.
