A Sunday election in Romania, Poland, and Portugal produced more or less similar results in these three European Union member states. Namely, in all three cases, the conservative party in each country (Democratic Alliance in Portugal, Civic Coalition in Poland, and the independent candidate of Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan) resisted the onslaught of the respective far right. In Poland, it is still the first round, in which the liberal right candidate—and also mayor, in this case of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski—narrowly edged out the far-right candidate, Karol Nawrocki, pending what may happen in two weeks, in the second round. In Romania, the first round was won by the anti-European candidate, George Simion, leader of the far-right AUR party and admirer of Trump and Viktor Orbán. However, in the second round, and against all odds, Nicolas Dan managed to overtake him, with a result that gave the European Commission pause. Finally, in Portugal, the hitherto conservative prime minister managed to repeat his position with a narrow victory over the Socialists (the day's biggest losers) and the far-right Chega party, which has experienced one of those spectacular growths characteristic of illiberal proposals around the world in the 1920s. Montenegro will have to govern as a minority and will first explore the parliamentary arithmetic that will allow it to govern without depending on Chega's far-right, but it remains ambiguous about what might happen in the future. With different modulations, the parties of liberal democracy and European social democracy are facing similar dilemmas.
The case of Portugal is interesting because Montenegro came to power after overthrowing the previous Socialist president, António Costa, on corruption charges that were later proven to be false. Costa is currently the President of the European Council, while Montenegro had to call early elections (in which he narrowly won reelection) precisely because of a corruption scandal. However, the left retreated in Portugal, while the far right gained increasing strength. Costa had been the Prime Minister of the so-called "Republic of Montenegro." Portuguese miracle, when in the midst of the global crisis, his progressive government distanced itself from European austerity policies and managed to drastically reduce the deficit while raising wages. He achieved a few years of prosperity in Portugal while his government's priority was social and environmental policies. Costa's downfall, due to the lies of right-wing politicians and media, is similar to what the PP and Vox would like for Sánchez in Spain. What they have never said is what would come next, if they succeeded. Montenegro's erratic and unstable governance in Portugal may give us some insight.
