I've been following, with a sort of lazy distance, the respective mass group therapies that the two major Spanish parties, the PSOE and the PP, held this weekend. Aznar's presence, as sour and threatening as ever, and his allusions to Pedro Sánchez's possible imprisonment made me think about what all this was like a quarter of a century ago. In the summer of 2000, Spanish politics was marked by the recent absolute majority obtained by the Popular Party in the March general elections. Between 1996 and 2000, Aznar governed with the support of CiU, the PNV, and Coalición Canaria. However, the PP's overwhelming victory generated a change in the political dynamic that pathetically revealed the inconsistency of certain statements made to justify an opportunistic approach that many PP members considered unnatural at the time (the same thing that many PSOE members now consider unnatural with regard to ERC or Bildu, by the way). It must be said, in any case, that CiU, PNV and CC received more than considerable compensation for their support, and not just symbolic. This is not the case for the PSOE in relation to its current partners, who are barely surviving on promises and yahotrobaremismo (Excuse the neologism). After four years of pacts and negotiations with nationalist parties, Aznar's government no longer needed anyone's support to pass laws in 2000, which led to an unashamedly centralist policy (then known as "closure of the autonomy process"). If we consult the newspaper archives, many debates focused on how the PP would use that majority in relation to Catalonia and the Basque Country. Pujol was still in charge: it was his last term in office.
This weekend, Aznar insinuated that whoever gets close to criminals ends up becoming a criminal. Really? Think back. With Rodrigo Rato as Second Vice President and Minister of Economy, his government intensified the privatization policies of public companies initiated during the previous term. Then we saw how it all really turned out: in many cases, pure criminality prevailed. Aznar's right-hand man, in fact, ended up in Soto del Real. It seems, then, that you have to be careful what you say, lest bad omens fall on your neck. Think of the almighty Rato, without going too far.
After the electoral defeat, the PSOE was undergoing a process of reflection and restructuring. Joaquín Almunia had resigned as secretary general, and the party was preparing for a congress at which a new leader, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, would be elected. A quarter of a century ago in the summer, the internal crisis of the then main opposition party was also a focus of political attention, in terms very similar to how the PSOE assessed what happened at the PP congress. Indeed, things were said about Zapatero at the time that were remarkably similar to what is now being said about Feijóo (he doesn't have the makings of a leader, he's not viable, etc.). The Anti-Defection Pact was also a topic that was consolidated that summer and was finalized with an agreement in September 2000.
What has changed? Three important things. First, 2000 was one of the bloodiest years in ETA's history, with 23 deaths and 66 attacks. That situation was a central issue on the political agenda: it determined everything. Second, the Catalan independence movement already existed, obviously, but from the perspective of parliamentary arithmetic, it was irrelevant in Madrid. Finally, the Spanish far right (Ynestrillas and the like) could make a splash, but numerically, it was a mere token event. In the summer of 2025, ETA no longer exists, although in terms of arguments, the PP replaces it with malicious allusions in Bildu. Without the Catalan independence movement, without the deputies from Junts and ERC, it is highly unlikely that, under the current circumstances, there will be one majority or the other in Congress. The far right is now called Vox and is the third-largest political force in Spain. Podemos, Sumar, and others, on the other hand, don't change the situation much from 25 years ago because they basically represent the old IU with different names and accents.
In the summer of 2000, the two-party system de facto It was still a tangible reality, although the nuances were already becoming important. Aspiring to a very large, or even absolute, majority wasn't a pipe dream. Twenty-five years later, this aspiration is simply ridiculous: the numbers don't add up anywhere. But the PP and the PSOE remain at the top of this old fantasy, or at least in improbable idyllic pacts without any quid pro quo. They'll figure it out.
