Spanish politics is a minefield and Murcia, so often at the forefront of reaction, has been the epicentre of an explosion, the shock wave of which has reached Madrid and we'll see if it also reaches Catalan politics. The casualties are beginning to be counted within Ciudadanos, with an Inés Arrimadas who has committed harakiri due to a lack of internal leadership and an inability to foresee the intensity of the movement in Murcia, where her people have betrayed her unceremoniously.
With the naturalness of the underworld, the PP will save the vote of no confidence presented by Ciudadanos and PSOE by incorporating three MPs of Ciudadanos in its government. Three MPs who will vote against the no-confidence vote that they themselves signed and will support Fernando López Miras, arguing that they supported the vote "under pressure", while Edmundo Bal of Cs accuses them of having been "bought with charges and money". The MP of Ciudadanos costs around 75,000 euros in Murcia.
The no-confidence vote that broke the agreement of Cs with the PP has served as an excuse for the avid leader of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, to take the leader of the PP by the neck and take him to early elections. Casado has seen how Ayuso imposes her law in Madrid to the populist cry of "freedom or socialism".
Ayuso will foreseeably go to elections and the Community of Madrid will provide breathing space for Vox, always on the verge of reconquest.
The spectacle does not stop here, but the bombshell has also shaken Moncloa, which sees Ciudadanos entering into full autophagocytosis and expelling its political remnants left and right, once the fiction of that liberal party that could act as a hinge in Spain has disappeared. The end of some people's dream was declared yesterday by Arcadi Espada himself, one of the founders, in a "Manifesto for extinction" amidst obituaries.
With the remnants of Ciudadanos splitting between those who are moving closer to the PSOE and those who remain with the PP, the balance of support in the Madrid government may change. The shock wave may also reach the PSOE's relations with ERC, whose strategy of moderation and dialogue may backfire. In other words, dialogue may once again be undermined if, once again, Spanish politics turns its back on moderation and responds by putting more coal in the machine of grievance and indignation, and gives credence to those who have never trusted in a sincere possibility of dialogue that would lead to pardons and a negotiating table.
Loudspeaker and mute
While waiting for the PSOE to move or do as it always does, trapped by the forces of the "España una" ("One Spain"), in Catalonia the fact that the negotiations between the three pro-independence parties are being conducted with a muted voice is to be welcomed, but it does not mean that the orchestra is in tune or that the result will be positive for the reconstruction of an anguished country.
Esquerra is interested in negotiating on both sides of the pro-independence movement, trying to keep as many lines open as possible, and Jordi Sànchez, the most political of the Junts politicians, gave the order to keep quiet, and this has been done in the negotiation, to lead ERC towards a "unitary strategy" in parliamentary action and negotiation with Madrid.
Also on mute, ERC has skilfully worked on the return of Meritxell Serret.
With the Government waiting and Junts saying they are in no hurry, the first agreement between ERC, Junts and the CUP (blank voter) has facilitated the arrival of Laura Borràs to the Parliament. Borràs marks the lines of action in an interview that we publish in the ARA and makes it clear that not citing her predecessor in her first speech was not a simple question of discourtesy but an amendment to the totality of the performance of the outgoing president of the Parliament, Roger Torrent.
Borràs assures that there is an agreement to reform the Parliament's rules of procedure in order to allow the "inviolability" of the chamber in the face of justice.
Restoring the dignity of the institutions is part of the duties of the next legislature, the office and authority of the presidency of the Generalitat must be occupied and the usefulness of the chamber must be guaranteed. The Government and the chamber have to work with the aim of rebuilding a country in pandemic, socially threatened and economically sunk.
Borràs' speech connects perfectly with a part of the pro-independence electorate that feels humiliated, but the difference between the virtuous objective of the separation of powers and any tactic to avoid the action of justice in non-ideological aspects will have to be explained very well. The citizens of Catalonia, including the sovereigntists, cannot afford exceptions to judicial action. Compliance with the law is obligatory for all citizens, who at the same time also have the right to protection from the democratic activity of the pro-independence movement. In the coming months we will have to see how the two conditions are equally guaranteed, how Borràs' words are put into practice and what form a presidency that is shaping up to be intense will take.