The deep crisis of political legitimacy exhibited by the Serbian government may soon begin to take its toll on the already weak influence of the European Union in the Western Balkans. What credibility can an EU accession process have when it seems to prioritize geopolitical stability over democratic principles?
Four months of protests, which have culminated in the largest demonstration in Serbian history, have been accompanied by rampant levels of repression: intimidation, mobbing of protesters, reports of the use of sound cannons, false rumors of violence, and the paralysis of rail traffic on the eve of the protest... The Council of Europe is calling for an investigation into the methods used by Aleksandar Vučić and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to try to stop what they describe as an "imported revolution."
The protesters are a mix of students, teachers, farmers, and residents of Novi Sad, the country's second largest city in northern Serbia, where a concrete train station canopy collapsed on November 1, killing 15 people. Since then, demands for responsibility for the disaster and allegations of corruption and cronyism have spread across the country.
But the social unrest, under the cry of "corruption kills," is colliding with the pillars of a corrupt system, its megaphones of communication, and international support that remains impassive.
Serbia's kleptocracy is not just a domestic problem. As the European Western Balkans portal, which monitors the EU accession process, explains, it is a transnational phenomenon underpinned by three interrelated factors: state capture, with Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party as the main facilitator; geopolitical competition between the EU, China, and Russia to gain local influence; and international collusion, including that of some EU states. A European Parliament resolution following the 2023 elections in Serbia called for an investigation into allegations of fraud and irregularities affecting more than 20% of polling stations. But there were no consequences. People looked the other way. Just as it is happening again now.
Despite calls from Serbian civil society for the EU to condemn the violence against peaceful protesters, and the unsuccessful petition by around thirty MEPs from the Greens-European Free Alliance, the Social Democrats, and the Liberals, writing to Ursula von der Leyen, the EU has been pathetic in recent months.
The same European Commission that so explicitly supported the Georgians demonstrating against their corrupt government is now being cautious about its statements.
There are no European flags at the Serbian demonstrations. In fact, 35% of Serbs still believe their country will never join the Union.
Although Belgrade's political elites remain rhetorically committed to accession, and the EU is Serbia's main provider of financial assistance and by far the country's most important trading partner, the enlargement process has long since lost its transformative momentum.
But despite regular Commission reports showing little progress on Serbia's democratic and rule of law reforms, enlargement is now a strategic security issue for the Union. Last July, the EU signed a memorandum of understanding with Belgrade announcing a "strategic partnership on sustainable raw materials" and guaranteeing it access to the lithium reserves in the Jadar Valley, largely untapped due to mass citizen protests that successfully halted the project in 2021.
A deep disenchantment with the European Union has long been felt in Serbian public opinion. This is partly due to the lack of coherence among member states, which have their own and sometimes contradictory agendas in the Balkans. Vučić has received messages of support from Hungary, Slovakia, and Moscow in recent months.
But if Brussels is truly committed to EU enlargement, it will have to stop turning a blind eye to the deterioration of democratic standards in Serbia. The so-called "stabilocracy," as Stefan Šipka, an expert at the European Policy Centre, calls it, doesn't work, especially in the long term, if the price is maintaining corrupt regimes that rule against their own people. Especially since the EU will eventually integrate its consequences.
